Monday Morning Update

Monday, March 4th 2013, 4:32 am

We're tracking another surface low and cold front that will move across the area this morning into early afternoon as a fast moving clipper drops across the northern Rockies.   Low level moisture (surface dew point) is not in place for a decent chance of showers or storms with this system.  Any pre-frontal or frontal activity will be confined to the far eastern sections of the state or better yet across western Arkansas.  Some of the data does offer some support for post frontal (behind the system) showers across far NE OK, SE Kansas, and SW Missouri.  This chance will be around 10% to 20% and mainly late tonight into pre-dawn Tuesday. I will keep the slight probability on the 7 day planner for this late night and early morning chance.  Temp profiles in the atmosphere would support a rain-snow mix across extreme northern OK into southern Kansas if the precip occurs.  

Temperatures behind the system for Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly below the seasonal average with morning lows in the upper 20s and the afternoon highs near 50.  We'll be in-between systems for the middle part of the week.  

By the middle to the end of the week, our temperatures will be nearing normal averages with south winds returning in advance of a major upper level system approaching the area. This storm will be nearing the southern and central plains Friday, and will more than likely not eject across the area until Sunday.  This will create a need for rain chances spread across the Friday through Monday time period in the extended forecast until we get a higher confidence on the exact timing of the system.  I'll refrain from posting the differences between the GFS and EURO regarding the position of the surface low and the possibility of strong storms.  Regardless of the synoptic positions of the data in the models this morning, the confidence will be somewhat high on a decent chance of beneficial rainfall part of the state this weekend.  

The high in Tulsa yesterday was recorded at 4:16pm.

The normal daily average high is 59 and the low is 37.

The daily records include a high of 83 from 1938 and a low of 6 recorded on this date in 1960.


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I'll also be discussing the weather on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network affiliate stations throughout the state this morning through the noon hour.


Thanks for reading the Monday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.


Have a super great day!

Alan Crone