Monday Morning Update

Monday, February 18th 2013, 4:38 am
By: Alan Crone

We're tracking three different systems over the next 7 days that will have impacts on portions of our area and the state. The first system arrives today, the second Wednesday into Thursday, and the third late next weekend. 

Our first system will basically move over the Tulsa vicinity this morning before encountering some meager low level moisture to our east.  A few showers and storms will be possible across far eastern OK or southeastern OK around midday to early afternoon before more robust storms develop to our east and southeast.  The cold front will move across the state this morning and bring gusty west and northwest winds this afternoon in the 15 to 25 mph range.  Morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine with highs in the 60s.  I'll keep a 20 pop on the map for locations near and east of Tulsa from 10am to about 3pm or so. We'll cool down tomorrow with morning lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s and daytime highs around 50 or so.  East winds will be common around 10 mph.  

The winds will quickly increase speeds Tuesday night from the southeast as another strong upper level system approaches the area.  A few spotty showers could develop Wednesday morning across northern OK but the higher chances will occur Wednesday night into Thursday when widespread rain and thunderstorms will be likely.  If sufficient moisture can increase ahead of the system, a few strong to severe storms may be possible Thursday, but current indications suggest the severe weather threat will occur south of the Red River during the Thursday time period.  

At the very beginning stages of this second system (Wed AM) it's not impossible to see some light freezing rain or sleet across extreme northern OK.  This is not expected to be a major issue, and the overall chance of this scenario is rather slim, but we feel like we need to make mention, just in case this long shot comes into play.  The NAM raw output is rather cold Wednesday with highs near freezing while some other data suggest temps moving into the lower 40s by midday.  

After the Thursday system passes eastward, we'll be in good shape Friday and most of Saturday.  The 3rd system may be nearing the area either Sunday or Monday of next week with a chance of precipitation.  We'll not focus much on this system at this point, other to indicate the potential for active weather. The huge BASS Master Classic is coming to Grand Lake this weekend, and so far, it appears the weather will hold off for the event.  If the 3rd system we're tracking speeds up, it could provide an issue for Sunday afternoon, but at this point, we're keeping Sunday free of precip and won't include any rain or storm chances until Monday.  Temps Friday should go from a low of 26 to a high of 46 with northeast winds at 15 mph.  Saturday starts at 27 and finishes at 51 with southeast winds at 15 mph.  Sunday's low begins at 36 and highs top out near 57.  South winds will be stout Sunday in the 15 to 25 mph range.   

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 68.

The normal high is 54 and the low is 32.

The daily record high is 78 from 1930 and the record low is 2 from 1936. 

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Alan Crone