Friday Morning Update

The cold front moved across the area yesterday afternoon but the real deal cold air is just now sliding across the southern plains across the state.  Winds have been picking up overnight in the 15 to 25 mph range and will continue to be gusty through the midday period.  We may see some sun for the first half of the day before clouds begin to increase across the state later this afternoon.  Daytime highs will top out  in the mid-40s across northern OK and near 50 across southern OK.  

Late this afternoon, another clipper type short wave will rapidly drop across the central plains allowing a chance for some light precipitation across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.  The column of air aloft to the surface would support a snow profile from about midnight  to pre-dawn Saturday and yesterday's  NAM/RPM indicated a signal for some light precip during this late Friday night period.  Incoming NAM runs are absent of any decent precip signals this morning, but we'll keep a slight chance of flurries or a dusting somewhere across NE OK and SE Kansas. Yesterday's Bufkit data ( and other tools) indicated the potential for an inch of accumulating snow, in spots, across northeastern OK,  and southeastern Kansas.  At this point, we'll keep a mention for flurries and possibly a dusting in a few spots. 

Saturday the morning lows will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s with highs in the mid or upper 40s.  North winds will give way to southwest winds during the afternoon around 10 mph.  Sunday windy and mild conditions are expected with highs moving into the mid-60s as the main upper air trough across the Great Lakes will be moving eastward.  A major pattern change will soon be underway.  

Several pacific troughs will be moving across the nation over the next 10 days and this will bring a few chances for storms to the region. 

The first one arrives Monday, but the low level moisture is expected to remain too low to support storms near Tulsa, The higher chance will be along and east of the highway 69-75 corridor into Arkansas.  I will keep a 10 pop on the map to highlight that chance for our neighbors to the east. 

A stronger system will be nearing the area Wednesday into Thursday.  This system will have more in the way of low level moisture to work with and the dynamics will be stronger.  The pattern would support a chance of severe weather, but the timing of the system (mainly Thursday morning) would limit the usual severe weather threats.  Some data is also keeping the real warm front south of the region through the period, and this would also keep the severe weather threat well south of the region.  I must stress this timing could change greatly between now and next week.  We will monitor this system closely and make updates when and where appropriate.

Another system may near the area by next Sunday or Monday.

The high in Tulsa yesterday was 60 recorded at 4:23pm.

The normal daily average high is 53 and the low is 31.

Daily records include a high of 80 from 1976 and a low of 3 from 1905.

You'll find me on Facebook and Twitter.

http://www.facebook.com/AlanCroneNewsOn6

Twitter  @alancrone

I'll be discussing the weather this morning with Dan Potter and the KRMG morning news in Tulsa.  I'll also be on numerous Radio Oklahoma Network stations throughout the state this morning through the noon hour with forecast and weather information.

Thank you for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion and blog,

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV