Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, February 12th 2013, 6:55 am

Rain is likely today across the eastern third of the state with highs near 40.  Some rain may change to snow early evening, but no significant accumulation will be likely across northern OK.

A rain-snow event is likely today for portions of the state with highs near 39 by midday in Tulsa and falling into the mid-30s by afternoon.  Higher probabilities for significant accumulating snowfall will continue across northwestern and west Central OK this morning through midday.  Rain is likely across northeastern OK this morning through midday.  Later this afternoon and evening rain may change over to snow along the I-44 corridor.  Some accumulation is possible. The system will be quickly exiting the state pre-dawn Wednesday with improving weather Wednesday afternoon Thursday before more cold air arrives Thursday night.  Some light snow showers may also be a possibility Friday morning across southern OK.  

The confidence is high for a cold rain event across most of eastern OK for most of the day while snow develops across west central and northwestern OK. 

Most model data continues to offer a classic set up for moderate snowfall across portions of west central  OK this morning and we may have some rain mixing to snow by late evening as the cold upper air low moves over the region.  Temps in the upper atmosphere all the way down the column of air to near 5000 ft. will support all snow.  But the data has continued to suggest the very lowest layer of the atmosphere (from 1000mb to near 975mb) may remain near or slightly above freezing until late tonight.  If this small layer of air is colder than anticipated, our snowfall totals could be higher.  Currently, we'll continue to call for some snow accumulations anywhere from .05 inches to near 1 inch on grassy areas along the I-44 corridor.  Locations from Stillwater to Pawnee to Northwestern Osage County could receive a swath of 1 to 3 inch snowfall.  A small area of northeastern Ark may also be in the running for about an inch to near 1.5 inches of snow.  Areas south of I-40 and east of highway 69-75 would more than likely receive only rain.  Again, to be clear, the Tulsa area will experience a cold rain event until late this afternoon when rain may change to light snow late tonight.  There may be some issues on bridges and overpasses Wednesday morning along and northwest of the I-44 corridor.  Major issues are not expected in our immediate areas of concern. 

The next system to impact the area will arrive Thursday night with another taste of cold air.  Temps will drop into the upper 20s Friday morning and may stay in the upper 30s for most of the afternoon with northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.  GFS data is attempting to bring an upper level wave across the state Friday morning producing a few snow showers across part of the area. I'll keep a slight mention of snow showers in the Friday morning forecast.   

Saturday will remain cool with morning lows in the 20s and highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s.  Sunday a return to southerly winds should allow temps to move into the 50s as another upper level system draws near the area.  This system will manifest itself with a chance of showers and storms early next week, possibly around the Monday time period, followed by another cool down for the middle of next week. 

The high yesterday in Tulsa was 53.  The normal daily average high is 52 and the low is 30. 

Daily records include a high of 86 from 1962  and a low of 0 from 1905. 

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion and Blog.


Have a super great day!

Alan Crone




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