Friday Morning Update

Friday, February 8th 2013, 5:46 am

Yes, we did receive some rain and thunderstorm activity yesterday across a large portion of the area.  Yes, the precipitation was meager!  The total at Tulsa International Airport was only 0.05 inches of rainfall.  We're still looking at another stronger system arriving Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by colder air for the middle of next week.  

We expect highs today moving into the mid-50s across northern OK and some lower 60s possible across the southern part of the state.  Some low clouds have been noted across eastern OK this morning, and the RAP indicates these could linger through the morning hours before clearing later today. Northeast winds should suffice for most of the day before flipping out of the east and southeast later this evening.  A strong upper level system currently off the west coast will be our next big weather maker and will be influencing the weather for the weekend. 

The first thing you may notice for Saturday will be the rapid increase of cloud cover and gusty south winds.  Winds in the 15 to 30 mph range will be common along with increasing clouds by afternoon.  As low level moisture attempts to stream northward, we could see a few showers or some drizzle developing across the eastern third of the state.  This is a very slim chance, but if it does happen, it will ruin my temperature forecast for the day.  I'm currently expecting highs in the mid-50s, but if we do see the light drizzle or showers developing, our temps will drop to around 50 or so for the afternoon.  Needless to say, the confidence on the Saturday high is not exactly high, but I'll be in the ball park. 

The confidence for Saturday night and Sunday morning storms will remain high.  A strong upper level system will stay to the west of the area, but a surface low pressure area will lift from SE Colorado into the central and northern high plains by Sunday afternoon.  This will cause a dry line/cold front feature to move across the state by early Sunday morning.  Showers and storms will be likely to form late Saturday evening into pre-dawn Sunday.  GFS and NAM data keep the surface based convective energy well south of the area but we still may have a few strong to severe storms early Sunday morning with some small hail potential.  Currently, the chance of thunderstorm activity will remain high, but the chance for strong to severe storms will remain low.  The dry line should be exiting the state around noon to 2pm followed by a cold frontal passage by the evening hours.  Temps Sunday should top out in the 60s but will be dropping a few degrees for Monday.  The clouds Sunday morning should also quickly move eastward bringing mostly sunny conditions for Sunday afternoon. 

The main upper level system to the west will finally move eastward by Tuesday into Wednesday.  GFS data continues to support the possibility of some wintry precip during this period for portions of the state.  12 EURO from yesterday brings a small area of snow across the southern third of the state late Tuesday night while keeping the precip out of northern OK.  The latest EURO keeps it even further south.  I'll continue to keep a slight mention of light precip in the forecast for the Tuesday afternoon and evening periods until confidence increases or decreases for this period of the forecast cycle.  

Regarding the New England winter storm.  This major winter event will be approaching the New England states today with a full force winter storm slamming into the region tonight.  Significant and potentially historic snowfall totals are possible near Connecticut to Massachusetts to Rhode Island where 20 to 30 inches of snow may be common.  Snowfall from 12 to 20 inches may also be likely in New York.  Blizzard like conditions with winds from 35 to 60 mph will be common tonight along the coast.  This system will be exiting the region by Saturday night, but widespread power outages and major travel disruptions are likely.   

The high yesterday in Tulsa was 59 at 11:42am.

The normal daily high is 51 and the low is 30.


The daily records include a high of 76 from 1990 and a low of -5 from 1933.  


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Have a super great day!

Alan Crone