Due to the threat of early morning showers and storms, I'll be brief with the early morning discussion. This is being posted at 3:16AM.
A cold front and dry line will be moving across our area today bringing a chance of strong to near severe storms to the Eastern OK/Western Arkansas area. A few storms may also be severe pre-dawn from near Tulsa northward into southeastern Kansas. These storms could produce all modes of severe weather, including a brief tornado, but the chance will remain low for severe storm formation during the pre-dawn hours. The slightly higher chance for severe storms will occur during the midday to late afternoon period across the state.
The low level jet will crank up across central and eastern OK this morning. Low level moisture in the form of lower to mid-60 dew points are now in place across the central and eastern portion of the state. A spring- like long wave trough to our west will spread dynamic energy across the area today allowing for the formation of storms. While the parameters may exist for all modes of severe weather pre-dawn, the upper air flow will quickly become parallel to the surface boundary and this will result in the storms forming a squall line by mid-morning near Tulsa. This line will quickly move eastward by early afternoon and will be exiting the state between 3pm and 5pm. The actual cold front will not slide across the Tulsa area later this afternoon (6PM) and this will allow the highs to move to near 73 before colder air arrives tonight. There may continue to be a slight chance for a few flurries between 3AM and 5AM Wednesday morning across extreme NE Ok and SE Kansas, but this chance remains extremely low. I'll mention it here, but keep it off the main 7 day planner for on air purposes this morning.
The specific timing for the chance of storms today will support scattered storms near and slightly west of I-35 between 3am and 7am. The storms will form a line of thunderstorm activity and approach the Tulsa to Okmulgee line from 10am to noon. The squall line will move east of the highway 69-75 corridor between 3pm and 5pm and should be out of the entire state by 6pm.
The air mass behind the boundary will be cool but not excessively cold with Wednesday afternoon highs expected to be around 48. Temps will level off around the lower 50s Friday and Saturday. The cool and dry air mass will remain through at least Friday, but we may see a few showers Saturday. Extended data will continue to support a gradual warming trend of the lower to mid-60s by early next week.
The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 75 at 3:57pm.
The normal average high is 49 with the low of 28.
Daily records include a high of 76 from 2011 and 1947. The record low is -2 recorded on this date in 1949.
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