Friday Morning Update

Here we go friends!  We're in the middle of a warming trend that will take our afternoon highs to near 60 today and possibly into the mid-60s tomorrow afternoon.  Southwest winds this afternoon will become breezy in the 15 to 25 mph range and abundant sunshine is expected.  

The upper air pattern has changed.  The long wave trough that has been to our west for the past week finally cleared the area yesterday morning bringing snow and cold air portions of the southern United States.  The upper air flow will be from the northwest for the next few days and we'll see a very nice warming trend kick into through Saturday. 

Temperatures yesterday moved into the mid-50s, well above the forecasted highs, and we see no reason why they won't be into the upper 50s today.  The computer numbers (and pattern recognition) suggest lower 60s are likely tomorrow and I pushed the high to 64 due to the influence of sunny conditions and southwest surface winds in the 10 mph range.  Saturday should be a really nice day compared to last weekend when we experienced the bitter cold air and sleet.

There will be a pothole in the road for Sunday and Monday.  The first weak boundary will slide across the area Sunday bringing slightly cooler air back to the northern half of the state.  I've been struggling on how cold we'll drop Sunday.  The computer numbers may be underestimating the leading edge of colder air, but I'll not put up too much of a fight and keep a high near 52 with east to northeast winds.  There will be a potential for Sunday readings to go into the upper 40s.

Later Sunday evening (or late afternoon) the real deal surge of arctic air will arrive and should drop our highs back to the lower or mid 30s Monday after morning lows near 20.  The moisture content is extremely low and no precipitation will be expected.

The trajectory of the cold blast and almost all available guidance suggest a rapid warm up Tuesday with south winds developing and highs into the lower 50s.  I still think this may be too fast.  I'll keep us down in the lower 40s Tuesday for this forecast cycle.

Wednesday and Thursday we're back to another warming trend with upper 50s and lower 60s before the next front arrives Thursday bringing a slight chance of a shower or two across extreme eastern OK.  This chance would be around 10%.

The high in Tulsa was 55 yesterday afternoon!

The normal daily high is 48 and the low is 27.

Daily records include a high of 72 from 1951 and the low of -14 from 1930!

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Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather Discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone