Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, November 22nd 2012, 5:25 am
By: Alan Crone

Howdy Friends.  I'll keep the discussion on the short side today.  The Thanksgiving Day cold front is on track and will be arriving this afternoon and early evening across Northern OK bringing a slight chance for a few showers and storms.  The front will bring near seasonal air back to the state for Friday and Saturday before another cold front arrives early next week. 

The temps today are expected to move into the mid-70s along with gusty south winds before the boundary draws near the area.  The latest high resolution data supports a frontal passage near Tulsa around the 6 pm time frame with the front entering southern OK from 8 pm to 10 pm.  The front should be able to generate a few showers and storms, but the low level moisture is not expected to be of the quality and depth needed for a higher coverage of thunderstorms.  The convective and potential energy is expected to also be low but some thunder is a possibility even with meager instability.

 The air mass behind the front will knock the temps down into the mid or upper 50s Friday with brisk north winds at 10 to 20 mph.  A surface ridge of high pressure will quickly build across SW MO, SE Kansas, and NE OK allowing temps to drop into the upper 20s by Saturday morning.  Saturday afternoon highs will range from the mid-50s to the lower 60s as east winds back to the south late in the afternoon.  Sunday's highs should move into the mid-60s along with gusty south winds from 10 to 25 mph. 

The next fast moving system is expected to roll across the state Monday afternoon with a few shower or storms followed by a big cool down for Tuesday. The morning lows in the 30s will be followed by highs in the upper 40s with stout north winds.  As this system moves eastward, severe weather will be likely across the southern portions of the U.S. Tuesday into early Wednesday. 

EURO and GFS data continue to differ regarding support for another cold front around Wednesday or Thursday of next week.  We'll adopt a "wait and see" mode for that part of the data.  

Yesterdays high was 77 recorded at 3:20pm.

The daily normal average high is 58 and the low is 37.

Records for today include a high of 79 from 2010 and a low of 16 from 1929.


Thanks for reading the Thursday morning-blog discussion.


Have a super Thanksgiving.

Alan Crone