Chance Showers Sunday Night.


Saturday, November 17th 2012, 6:32 pm
By: News On 6


The weather pattern continues to be relatively quiet for this coming week, but there are signs our weather could get a little more interesting the following week. More about that in a moment, but first there are some things happening this week that need some attention. The sunny skies of the last few days will be giving way to an increase in cloud cover by early Sunday morning and mostly cloudy skies should then be the general rule for Sunday and Monday.

This is due to a system aloft with no real surface reflection, so it is a rather weak system. Even so, there will be enough lift associated with it to produce not only the clouds but even a few showers and maybe even a rumble or two of thunder. That will be most likely Sunday night and into the morning hours of Monday when we will put the chances at about 30%. By Tuesday it will have moved on east of us leaving us with partly cloudy skies for Tuesday and into the day Wednesday.

The extra cloud cover will have a noticeable impact on temperatures. The clear overnight skies and colder than normal temperatures we have had for most of this week will be giving way to much milder temperatures due to the clouds and southerly winds. It will still be on the chilly side first thing Sunday morning with lows in the 30s to near 40, but Monday morning and for the rest of the week our overnight lows will be much milder and generally in the 40s to possibly even near 50 by Thanksgiving morning.

Our days will also be a bit warmer with daytime highs well into the 60s for the next few days and largely impacted by the optical thickness of the clouds that will be hanging around. We could even see afternoon temperatures near 70 for Tue-Thu, again dependent on the thickness of the cloud cover.

Thanksgiving Day itself still looks to be mostly cloudy with southerly breezes and a chance of showers. Another disturbance aloft will be pushing across the state by then, but this one looks to have a surface cool front associated with it. This front should be moving through that night followed by northerly winds and somewhat cooler conditions for Black Friday. However, there are some timing issues with this system as the longer range guidance is not showing much run to run nor model to model consistency, so there may also be some lingering showers into the day Friday. Again, this does not appear to be all that strong of a system with temperatures still running near to even a bit above normal for Friday and Saturday.

It is early that following week that we are seeing preliminary signs of a stronger, colder system coming our way. Still too early to get too excited about that as the timing and strength will likely change, but something we will be watching closely.

Until then, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot