Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, November 14th 2012, 5:57 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect another sunny and mild afternoon with highs in the lower 60s.  A dry and mild forecast will remain for the week before a slight chance of showers or storms arrives by Sunday into Monday.

There are not a lot of changes from yesterday at this hour regarding the forecast period through the weekend: mild fall weather will remain in place.  Sunday into early next week, low level moisture may attempt a return across Eastern OK as another upper level wave approaches the area.  This may result in a few showers Sunday into Monday before the system slides east Tuesday. 

The short term forecast cycle and observational data support a general west to east flow in the upper levels (zonal) with no major upper level system nearby.  As is the case with most zonal flows, it's expected to "buckle" in about 3 days as a sharp upper level trough swings across the Midwest.  This feature will briefly drive a surface boundary across northern to central OK Friday but there will be little impact on our sensible weather expect for winds shifting to the north for part of the Friday time period. 

Friday evening into Saturday the next upper level system will begin influencing the western third of the nation and pressure will begin to fall east of the Rockies.  This will back our winds from the south through the weekend into early next week and begin the process of transporting gulf moisture back across the southern plains.  The question remains:  how much moisture can recover before forcing arrives from the west?  The last run of the GFS seems to be the most aggressive with moisture return mounting a decent shot of rain for Monday across part of East Texas into Southern and South-central OK, while the EURO is less aggressive in the quantitative precipitation forecast but is similar in scope to the timing of the wave.  We'll keep a very slight mention for a shower on Sunday, but center a 20 or 30% pop for Monday.

Temps are expected to remain near normal for the next few days with daytime highs in the lower 60s and morning lows slightly below normal in the mid to upper 30s. 

We continue to see no major intrusion of cold air over the southern plains during the next 7 to 10 days.

Yesterday's high in Tulsa was  58 recorded at 2:41pm.

The daily normal average high is 62 and the low is 40.

Our daily records for today include a high of 79 from 1989, 1964, and 1960 and a low of  13 from 1916.


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Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather blog-discussion!

Have a great day!

Alan Crone