Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 9th 2012, 6:05 am
By: Alan Crone

We expect mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions today with highs near 80.  The fire danger remains high today and tomorrow.  Storms are likely Sunday.  

The forecast remains on track regarding the main features of interest including the stout cold front arriving Sunday with a good chance for storms.  Some specific placement of surface features and timing of the system may undergo some changes over the next day or two, but Sunday afternoon and evening will remain the highlighted time period of interest. 

The pressure gradient is cranking up today with south winds expected in the 20 to 40 mph range.  Some gusts over 45 mph will be possible both today and tomorrow and our friends at the National Weather Service ( NWS) may issue wind advisories for some locations across the region.  The southerly winds will increase low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, but despite the increase in humidity values, the fire danger will remain high.  Several fires were underway last night south of Tulsa.   

Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s or lower 80s across the eastern third of the state with slightly warmer readings across the western sections of the state.  

The main upper level system is located near the Oregon-Washington State region this morning and is producing a major winter storm across portions of Utah, Montana, Idaho, and part of the Dakotas.  Blizzard warnings are posted for some locations in Northern Montana.  

This upper level system will remain well north of the southern plains this weekend but the surface cold front will move across the state Sunday bringing the round of showers and storms followed by much colder air.  There will be a chance for a few storms Saturday night late into pre-dawn Sunday across NW OK and a few of the storms may be severe.  A few of the storms could be severe Sunday across eastern OK but our instability levels will remain on the low side.   

The data suggests the cold air will stick around Monday and Tuesday before moderating Wednesday and Thursday.  Sunday morning readings in the upper 60s or lower 70s will be likely with temps falling into the upper 40s by late afternoon or early evening.  Monday morning lows in the lower 30s will be followed by afternoon highs in the upper 40s.   

As stated here yesterday, the only data that keeps some moisture across the state as the cold air deepens is the DGEX.  While some of the extreme eastern sections of the state could experience some left overs pre-dawn Monday, we're not expecting any lingering precipitation Monday across the state.   

The pattern will remain unsettled into next week with a southern stream system providing a chance for rainfall by Thursday or Friday of next week. The GFS has been consistent in this solution, but the last run from the EURO has broken the string of confidence.  We'll only keep a slight mention in the forecast for this time period.  

The official high yesterday in Tulsa was 75 recorded at 3:58pm.

The daily normal average high is 64 with the low of 43.

Daily records include a high of 84 from 2002 and the record low of 23 from 1955.


Friday Night Football forecast:


Windy conditions will prevail tonight statewide with south winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Game time temps will start at 69 in the 1st quarter and be near 67 by the end of the game.  No precipitation is expected.


Saturday afternoon college games:


Baylor at The University of Oklahoma in Norman.

Game time is 2:30pm.  Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of a shower or storm.  Very windy.  South winds at 20 to 40 mph.  1st Quarter temp at 74.  4th Quarter temp at 69.


West Virginia at Oklahoma State University in Stillwater

Game time is 2:30pm.  Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of

a shower or storm.  Very windy.  South winds at 25 to 45 mph.  1st quarter temp at 75. 4th Quarter temp at 70.


The University of Tulsa at Houston

Game time is 4pm. Mostly to partly cloudy with a slight chance of isolated showers.  Windy.  South winds at 15 to 25 mph.  1st quarter temp at 82.  4th quarter temp at 76.


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Have a super great day!