The weather for Election Day is looking very pleasant with light winds, lots of afternoon sunshine, and temperatures running just a bit cooler than normal. The gusty northerly winds of today have kept temperatures from warming much this afternoon and we will be cooling quickly this evening and tonight. Some lingering cloud cover may keep temperatures from totally bottoming out, but we should still be generally in the 30s to start the day Tuesday. Also, the winds will be subsiding after sunset with a light northerly wind for the overnight hours shifting to a light SW direction during the day Tuesday.
That afternoon should see temperatures in the low-mid 60s which is just slightly below normal.
Wednesday will be a bit warmer with daytime highs near 70 and then much warmer for the rest of the week. In fact, some of the numerical guidance suggests we could see 80 degree temperatures for Thursday and Friday. That may be a bit extreme, but upper 70s to near 80 certainly appears possible. Our nights will also be warmer with lows near 50 Thursday morning and in the 50s to near 60 for Friday and Saturday mornings. It will also be windy with gusty southerly winds which will eventually bring up some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That could result in a few isolated showers on Saturday and the extra cloud cover should also keep us in the 70s for Saturday.
Sunday is shaping up to be a bit more interesting as the longer range guidance continues to target that day for a strong cold front to be pushing through the state. There remain some timing differences with the GFS now having a faster solution by about 12 hours or more and the ECMWF the slower solution. That will have a huge impact on temperatures as some much colder air will be moving in behind the system and the current forecast has an inverted temperature profile with falling afternoon temperatures.
Regardless of how the temperatures turn out on Sunday, the guidance has been consistent in bringing in a line of showers/storms with the cold front and the potential for some significant rainfall for this side of the state. Am still taking a more conservative approach as I don't want to get your hopes up too high. Also, the last couple of systems looked promising at this same time range and then fizzled out when the system actually arrived. However, this particular system does look very promising so we will probably be increasing the rain chances if the subsequent model runs maintain the current trends.
This will be followed by what looks to be the coldest air of the season for early next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.