Friday Morning Update

Friday, November 2nd 2012, 6:21 am
By: Alan Crone

The warm air cranks up today with highs in the mid or upper 80s.  South to southwest surface winds at 15 to 30 mph will be common.  The fire danger will be increasing today due to the dry conditions, gusty winds, and low afternoon humidity.  A fast moving cold front will slide across the region early tomorrow morning but only a very slight chance of a shower will be included in the forecast for northern OK.  Slightly higher chances for scattered showers or isolated storms will occur across the Red River Valley region late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.  

Temps today will be nearing record highs as a surface area of low pressure will develop across northwestern OK and southwest surface winds will increase over the region.  The cold front should enter the Northeastern OK - Southeastern Kansas region between 2am and 4am and then exit southern OK by 3pm to 5pm Saturday evening.  Low level moisture across our area will be limited near Tulsa with slightly better moisture south.  Model data indicates some showers and storms may form on the cool side of the boundary late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning from southern OK into northeast Texas.  

As the front passes Saturday morning, north winds will occur in the 10 to 20 mph range followed by a modest cool down for the weekend.  Saturday afternoon highs will be in the mid or upper 60s with Sunday highs in the mid-60s.  Morning lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s will be common Saturday and Sunday.   

The next system will be a fast moving upper level wave that will pass the area Monday night into Tuesday with most of the impact occurring over the Missouri Valley.  We'll see a wind shift Monday morning followed by temps in the 60s Monday.  I have included a slight mention for a shower or storm Monday afternoon, mainly east of Tulsa.  Sunshine and fall like air will be likely Tuesday.  A warming trend will follow for the middle to end of next week. 

Extended data supports a potent looking system approaching the area by next weekend, but I recall one week ago our data was also supporting a decent shot of storms for this weekend.  We do think, however, that moisture may be returning by the middle of next week that could set the stage for the potential for rain by next weekend.  Stay tuned.  

Our official high yesterday in Tulsa was 80 recorded at 3:37pm.

The normal average high is 67 with the low of 45.

Daily records include a 89 from 1909 and a 20 from 1966.


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Alan crone