Wednesday Morning Update

The warming trend will continue through the end of the week as our mid-level ridge of high pressure centered near the Rockies will keep the mild conditions across the southern plains.  The ridge will break down this weekend as a trough of low pressure approaches the region bringing a surface cold front into the state Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  This boundary will bring a chance for storms followed by a modest cool down with highs in the mid-60s Sunday and Monday. 

Our temps this morning in the 40s will be followed by highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with a north breeze the will develop as a surface ridge of high pressure slides into the central plains. Temps tonight from "prime time Halloween festivities" will be in the mid-60s by 6pm falling into the upper 50s by 9pm.  No precipitation will occur and the winds will be relatively light. 

 South winds will return late tonight into early Thursday and will signal a warming trend for the rest of the week. Morning lows will move into the lower and mid-50s and highs will range from the lower 80s Thursday to the mid-80s Friday.   

Friday into Saturday strong south winds will develop and attempt to draw low level moisture back into the region ahead of the cold front that will arrive Saturday.  The latest runs of the GFS and EURO suggest the front may arrive early Saturday compared to previous runs which suggested a late Saturday evening frontal passage.  The probability for thunderstorm activity remains on the low side across the northern part of the state, with slightly higher chances that may unfold across southern OK.  I have lowered the pop from 30 to 20% for northern OK and southern Kansas and will call for the frontal passage during the Saturday morning time period from 7am to 10am.   

Our high yesterday was 76 recorded at 4;17pm.  

The normal average high is 68 with the low of 46.  Daily records include a high of 87 from 1950 and 18 from 1993.

Precipitation for the year is 26.78 inches.  The normal precipitation for the year to date is 33.55 which yields  a deficit of -8.77 inches.

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Thanks for reading the morning discussion.

Alan Crone