Warmer, Chance of Showers/Storms on Monday.

Sunday, October 21st 2012, 9:31 am
By: News On 6

Notice how much temperatures have changed from 24 hours ago as the map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, clearly shows. Saturday morning at this time, temperatures were in the 30s and low 40s and this morning temperatures are running 20+ degrees warmer. That is what a south wind and increasing cloud cover can do for us overnight.

Speaking of cloud cover, the stratus deck has been a little slower getting up here than expected and may thin out a little more for this afternoon, particularly for the more western counties. That will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach well into the 80s and possibly near 90 for the more western counties and we should reach the low-mid 80s elsewhere. Together with gusty southerly winds, that also creates an elevated fire danger situation despite higher humidity levels.

A few isolated showers may pop up this afternoon or more likely into the overnight hours for the more eastern counties, but the chances are less than 20%. Better chances are still expected on Monday when a disturbance in the upper atmosphere will be passing over the state. However, a layer of warm air aloft will also provide a strong capping inversion making it difficult for any surface based storms to develop. Having said that, there appears to be enough elevated instability that if the upper level disturbance can generate enough lift, then a few marginally severe storms will be possible. Wind/hail would be the primary threat, if any storms form at all. Again, this is not a high confidence scenario and the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall still looks to be less than 50%.

Gusty southerly winds will continue into the day Thursday keeping temperatures much above seasonal levels. In fact, we could be setting some records, particularly during the overnight hours.

The longer range guidance has come into a little better agreement on the next cold front and it looks like it will bring the coldest air of the season our way in time for the coming weekend. In fact, it now looks like the front itself will be arriving Thursday afternoon/evening which is a little quicker than was anticipated with the previous model solutions. There will be a slight chance of showers/storms with the front itself as it crosses the state, but some energy aloft lingering behind the front will provide a better chance of rain on Friday. In fact, Friday looks to be a rather raw day with gusty northerly winds, cloudy skies, occasional rain or showers, and temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s during the day.

That will set the stage for a very cool weekend with daytime highs only in the 50s for Sat and Sun. If the skies clear out as expected and the winds settle down, then a frost/light freeze will be possible Sunday and Monday mornings.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot