Warmer Next Few Days, Chance Storms Monday.


Saturday, October 20th 2012, 6:43 pm
By: News On 6


After that very cool start this morning, temperatures rebounded quite nicely during the day today. Notice the max/min temperature map on the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet. The clear skies overnight and the light winds allowed for the chilly start, but the sunny skies and brisk southerly winds this afternoon really warmed things up.

We will keep a rather brisk southerly wind for the overnight hours which will bring higher dew point temperatures back into the state and also a low level stratus cloud deck by morning. That will keep us from cooling much tonight as most of us should be in the lower 60s to start the day on Sunday. Gusty southerly winds will continue throughout the day Sunday, but the low level cloud deck will be difficult to burn off. The clouds and any breaks in the cloud deck will play havoc with temperatures as the more western counties which will see more sunshine should make it into the upper 80s and possibly near 90. However, upper 70s to lower 80s should be the general rule on this side of the state due to the cloud deck. The caveat of course is if we should see some breaks in the clouds, then our daytime highs could reach the mid-upper 80s.

Monday will be much the same with southerly winds and mostly cloudy skies as a general rule keeping morning temperatures in the 60s to near 70 and our daytime highs near 80. However, a weakening system aloft will also provide at least a chance of showers/storms on Monday, some of which could be locally quite strong. There may even be a few showers on Sunday in advance of this system, but the chances look to be less than 20% at this time and primarily confined to the extreme SE counties. Although I am going with a 40% chance of showers/storms on Monday, that is very conditional. Conditions aloft presently suggest a strong capping inversion that may prove very difficult to overcome and the strength of the system aloft is questionable as well.

After that, Tue-Thu should see continued southerly winds and temperatures running much above normal. A few lingering showers may extend into early Tuesday morning and there will be a slight chance on Thursday, but the better chance looks to be on Friday.

The longer range products have come into better agreement on a significant cold front moving through the state on Friday. The exact timing remains questionable as the GFS is a little faster than the ECMWF, but the impacts look to be significant in time for the coming weekend. Look for shifting winds on Friday, a good chance of showers/storms, and temperatures that will likely be falling by later in the day. If present trends continue, most of the precipitation should have ended Friday night but gusty northerly winds will bring the coolest air of the season into the state for Saturday and Sunday. In fact, would not be surprised to see temperatures near the freezing mark, particularly for Sunday night into Monday morning.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot