Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, October 11th 2012, 6:43 am
By: Alan Crone

Warm moist air is moving rapidly northward this morning ahead of a warm front located to our south.  Some light showers along with areas of drizzle will be possible in a few locations this morning.  A couple of isolated storms may attempt to form across eastern OK or western Arkansas during the next few hours.  If they form, a few could produce some small hail with some lightning, but current data supports mainly the light showers and drizzle.  Storm chances will be increasing late tonight into Friday morning across Northern Ok and Southern Kansas as a weak boundary slides near the region and a warm front approaches from the south.  A few of these storms could become severe with large hail the primary threat.  Another chance of storms will kick in Friday afternoon to our west, but these are expected to remain west of our area through most of Friday evening.  Therefore I will only keep a 20% pop for the Friday evening time period after a 70% chance of showers and storms Friday morning.  

Saturday the main upper level system currently near the southern California area will be approaching Nebraska with a surface low across the southeastern Nebraska Saturday afternoon.  A trailing cold front-dry line located across western Ok will move eastward during the day Saturday and scattered storms will attempt to form during the afternoon and early evening.  A few of the storms may be strong to severe with all modes of severe weather possible.  The higher threat for significant severe weather will be north of our immediate area.  Locations from Eastern Nebraska, Eastern Kansas, Missouri, Western Iowa and Southeastern South Dakota will have a much higher likelihood for significant severe weather, including the threat of tornadoes.  Data currently supports the formation of a squall line type feature by Saturday evening moving across Eastern OK.   

The cold front will pass our area Saturday evening or pre-dawn Sunday bringing a temporary break from storms Sunday into Monday before another fast moving system will near the region Tuesday or Wednesday. Currently data supports only meager opportunities for showers or storms with the Wednesday frontal passage.  


Temperatures this afternoon could move into the lower 80s across southern OK with highs in the upper 70s across the northern third of the state.   Gusty south winds from 15 to 30 mph will be common today, and more so Saturday.  Wind speeds may decrease slightly Friday with the boundary located near northern OK before cranking back up Saturday.  

Afternoon temps Saturday and Sunday will be near or slightly above 80.  Winds Sunday will be from the northwest for a few hours before coming back around from the south Monday.   

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Thanks for reading the Thursday Morning Weather Discussion.

Have a super great day!


Alan Crone\