In case you were wondering, now that the month of September is over, it was yet another warmer than normal month and drier than normal month. In fact, so far this year, every month has been warmer than normal and we remain on track to set a record for the calendar year for the warmest year on record. September finished 2.9 degrees warmer than normal and was below normal on rainfall by 2.48". For the year, we are 7.71" behind on precipitation, although the rains of the past several days have certainly been a blessing.
The month of October will be getting off to a rather pleasant start for at least the next several days. The system responsible for the cloudiness and rain of the last few days is slowly moving on eastward. We are on the backside of the system with northerly winds and drier air filtering back into the area. However, there is also some energy aloft embedded in the upper level flow pattern that could set off a few showers during the day Monday. The chances are less than 20% so not much is expected, but the lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures close to normal.
We expect to be generally in the 50s to start the day and upper 70s with possibly a few locations around 80 for the afternoon hours. Winds will be from a northerly direction at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts during the afternoon hours. Cloudy skies to start the day should give way to partly sunny skies for the afternoon hours.
The clouds will be thinning out even more for Tuesday allowing morning temperatures to drop into the low-mid 50s. We will keep a northerly wind and somewhat cooler air will also be filtering in during the course of the day keeping daytime highs in the 70s to near 80. Wednesday will see gusty southerly winds return and daytime highs back into the 80s under mostly sunny skies.
The next cool front still looks to be arriving late in the day on Thursday with brisk southerly winds in advance of it and warmer temperatures. Morning lows will be in the 60s and daytime highs near 80 before things start to cool off again for Friday through the weekend. This does not look to be a big rainmaker for us, but there will be a slight chance of showers/storms with the front late Thursday. After that, the longer range guidance remains at odds with each other regarding how far the front will penetrate, how much we will cool off, and any lingering shower activity. Low confidence for that time period the way things stand right now. For now, will go with cooler temperatures and a slight chance of some lingering showers going into the weekend, but that is certainly subject to change.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.