Monday Morning Update

Monday, September 24th 2012, 5:26 am
By: Alan Crone

A few brief sprinkles may be possible this morning for an hour or two.  Windy and warm conditions are expected today with highs soaring back into the lower or mid-90s.  The Fire Danger will be very high today from Tulsa westward with Red Flag Warnings underway across portions of the state.  A weak surface boundary will be located to our north for the next few days allowing for a chance of some thunderstorm activity across southern Kansas and northern OK.  The upper air pattern will remain conducive for an active weather pattern through the weekend. 

The weekend cool down (across Northern OK) is coming to a crashing halt soon.  Locations south of I-40 only experienced a one day cool down (Sunday) and now the windy and warm conditions will soon envelope the area with afternoon temps moving into the lower or even mid-90s.  So much for fall!  This pattern will remain for the next few days, but we anticipate the afternoon highs will take a slight dive southward Wednesday and Thursday as an increase in cloud cover due to some scattered storms will be likely for northern OK.  The storm chances will remain somewhat low during this period, but I do think some locations across the area will experience some storm activity.  The upper air flow will remain somewhat zonal (west to east) for the short term with some minor waves moving across the flow.  A weak surface boundary to our north will more than likely remain north, but showers and storms will attempt to form near this boundary Tuesday through Thursday and may impact part of northern OK at times during this period.

The weekend is up for grabs at this point with the GFS offering a frontal passage sometime late Friday evening into Saturday bringing a decent cool down for the weekend along with northeast winds.  The EURO is suggesting the remnants from a pacific hurricane ( Mariam) may move across the southwest into the southern plains, including Oklahoma, producing a large amount of rain and thunderstorm activity. I'll post a track of this system on my Facebook page later this morning.   The left overs from Miriam would be a good thing for a drought stricken state.  The timing wouldn't be the greatest, since most folks would rather have a nice dry weekend, but if that's what happens, we'll take it!  We're not too excited about this probability at this point, and we'll only include slight chances for showers and storms for the weekend period for this forecast cycle.  The confidence for the weekend forecast will remain very low, and frankly may not improve until late this week.   

Our high yesterday in Tulsa was 79.  The normal average high for today is 80 with the low of 58.

Daily record highs include 99 from 1931 and 37 from 1989. 

Sunrise this morning will occur at 7:13AM with sunset at 7:14PM.

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