A couple of days ago, I posted a map showing a strong signal for below normal temperatures for the latter part of the month. The map on the right is an update on that valid from Sep 25-Oct 1. As you can see, the strongest signal for below normal temperatures is well to our east with a much weaker signal for below normal temperatures for our side of the state and near normal temperatures for the western side of the state.
Unfortunately, the precipitation outlook for that same time frame is not very promising. That is the second map on the right which has a strong signal for below normal precipitation for a large part of the country.
Between now and then, we will continue to see swings in temperatures every few days as cool fronts come our way along with a chance of a few showers and storms. But, we still do not see a big, drought busting, rain event coming this way anytime soon.
The cool front that arrived during the overnight hours has brought cooler, drier air back over the state today but did not produce much in the way of rainfall last night. This cooler, drier air will result in a nice cool start to the day tomorrow with morning lows ranging from the upper 40s to the lower 50s under clear skies and with light southerly winds. Wednesday will see a quick rebound with sunny skies and southerly winds quickly picking up to 10-20 mph or more by afternoon. That should put our daytime highs back into the 80s and 80s are also expected for Thursday and Friday.
A wind shift line looks to make it into at least the northern half of the area on Thursday, but it will not have much to work with so will only maintain a very slight chance of a shower/storm during the day. Look for southerly winds ahead of the boundary and a more NE wind behind the boundary as it passes through any given area. That system will stall out, but could provide a focus for a few showers/storms during the Thur night/Friday morning time frame. This front should receive a stronger push Friday night or early Saturday so will maintain a slight chance of a shower/storm during that time frame. Right now, this does not appear to be a big rainmaker either.
However, cooler air should be arriving over the course of the weekend keeping our daytime highs in the 70s for Saturday and Sunday. That will be followed by another warm-up going into the early part of that following week. By the way, the Autumn season officially arrives this coming Saturday at 9:49AM.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.