Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, September 18th 2012, 6:20 am

The cold front is now south of the Tulsa area and is approaching the Red River Valley this morning.  This boundary will move southward into Texas quickly giving us a pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid-70s along with north winds and sunny conditions.  We experienced only a few scattered storms overnight across NE OK and SE Kansas, and the storm chance for the remainder of the morning is over. 

This mild air mass will remain for about another day, but all available short range guides point toward temps moving into the mid and upper 80s Wednesday, Thursday and part of Friday before another cold front arrives either Friday or Saturday bringing a cool down for the weekend.  Some locations to our west Thursday may be flirting a few lower 90s.  It's worth nothing the raw NAM output takes Tulsa to 93 Thursday with southwest winds.  We'll not take the dreaded move upward in our forecast at this point, but our Thursday number will be just shy of 90.  

The NAM was depicting a surface area of low pressure across NW OK Wednesday with a chance of scattered storms Thursday along the I-35 area into NW OK.  The favored location for any of this possible activity would be slightly west of our area, but the pattern is very interesting.  The surface winds would be backing into the surface low with an increase of low level moisture Thursday afternoon.   We'll be watching this scenario carefully in the data, but at this point, we're not going to be too concerned about strong to severe storms across NE OK.  Our chance for storms Thursday will remain about 10%. 

Friday as the front arrives according to the GFS data , a few storms may be possible across NE OK or more so southeastern Kansas.  The GFS and EURO data yesterday supported a few storms or showers persisting Saturday across NE OK with north winds and cool air.  The last run ( 00z) of the Euro keeps the boundary north until Saturday morning, then brings the front southward with some post frontal precipitation and much cooler air for the weekend.  The surface air flow would back from the East-SE Sunday and this could help to produce a few storms across far NW OK Sunday afternoon, but this probability would also remain too far west our immediate area to include in the 7 day planner.  More than likely, I'll stick with the forecast we used yesterday for the weekend which includes 50s for lows, 70s for highs, and a slight chance of showers Saturday morning across NE OK.  

The bottom line:  a super nice day is approaching with highs in the mid-70s.  A system will be near the area Thursday through Saturday with a slight chance of isolated showers or storms. 


Yesterday the official high in Tulsa was 82 recorded at 5:03 PM.

Today the normal high is 83 with the normal low of 61.

The records for this date include a record high of 100 from 1952 and a record low of 42 from 1981.  

The sunrise this morning in Tulsa will be at 7:09AM with tonight's sunset at 7:26PM.


Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather update!

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