Our weather over the coming week or two is beginning to look like a roller coaster ride. After a quick rebound in temperatures today, a cold front will arrive this evening to cool us off for Tue into Wed morning followed by another rebound in temperatures. Another cool front should then be arriving late Friday to produce a cool-down for the weekend followed by another warm-up for early next week. However, the general trend is downward as would be expected since we are heading more into fall.
That is not to say that we won't have some more 90+ temperatures this fall, but it certainly appears that we are through with the triple digits for this year. Our total for the warm season of 2012 was 38 triple digit days, below the 44 of last year but much above the long term average of 15. Our latest triple digit day on record was 103 on Sep 28, 1953.
Although the break in the heat is certainly welcome, these systems are not particularly wet with only a slight chance of a shower or thunder for later today and through the overnight hours and again for Thursday into Friday in advance of the next cool front. In fact, the front that will be arriving this evening will likely see most of the precipitation behind the boundary, what we refer to as post-frontal precipitation. What precipitation we do receive is expected to be on the light side, so will maintain only a slight 20% chance of a shower or possibly some thunder for tonight.
After several cloudy days, we are finally seeing some sunshine which is warming temperatures up nicely this afternoon. Clouds and a chance of overnight rain will be followed by clearing skies first thing Tuesday morning and lots of sunshine for Tue and Wed. Brisk northerly winds of 10-20 mph behind the front tonight will also bring some cooler, drier air over the state. We should be in the low-mid 50s to start the day on Tuesday followed by an afternoon high in the mid-upper 70s. NE winds of 10-15 mph Tuesday will be quickly returning to a southerly direction on Wednesday and becoming rather gusty. That means Wed morning will start off clear and cool but will be quickly warming up during the day with afternoon highs in the 80s expected.
The return southerly flow will bring some clouds back into the state Thursday and at least one of the guidance products suggests a decent shot at some showers/storms before the day is over. However, that is not supported by the other available guidance for that time frame so will just keep a slight chance of rain for the time being and take a wait and see approach before getting too bullish on our rain chances. It will be warmer for Thursday and Friday with the southerly winds in advance of the next front that is on schedule to arrive later Friday.
This front does not appear to be very wet either, but will keep at least a chance of a shower/storm for late Friday, into the overnight hours, and possibly into Saturday morning. The longer range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement for the coming weekend. Except for a chance of showers Saturday morning, the rest of the weekend looks dry with lots of sunshine by Sunday and milder temperatures. As mentioned earlier, that should then be followed by another rebound for early next week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.