Friday Morning Update

Friday, September 14th 2012, 5:28 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to fall!  An upper level storm system to our west will continue to generate occasional showers across the area today as temperatures stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s across Eastern OK.  The upper air system will be closer to the region Saturday morning and may produce some scattered thunderstorms tomorrow morning before moving eastward by Saturday evening.  Highs this weekend will include the mid-70s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday.

The morning radar will continue to depict a large area of rain located across Northeastern OK into Southeastern Kansas.  Areas to the west and southwest are currently rain free but as the upper air system moves closer to the area today we anticipate additional activity to form across these areas and move northeast with time.  This should result in a cloudy, cool, and somewhat wet day with afternoon temps staying mainly in the upper 60s.  I have kept a 70 on the map for the daytime highs for some locations, but odds would support a high around 69 with northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.  I have placed the 69 on the map for Tulsa today.  This is jacket weather for the kids, and probably you too!

Friday Night Football:  We don't expect heavy rainfall, but some light showers will be possible tonight in some locations across Eastern OK with game time temps staying the mid-60s. 

Model data, including some high resolution solutions, indicate an area of rain and some thunderstorm activity developing overnight into pre-dawn Saturday across Northeastern OK as forcing from the upper level system draws near the area.  The NAM and 4KNSSL support the solution of keeping a high probability for Saturday morning.  The 00Z run of the GFS seems to depict the higher coverage Saturday morning across far southeastern OK and northeastern Texas.  This does diminish some of the confidence for the weekend precipitation forecast, but not enough to make any big changes regarding the forecast and planning purposes.  I had a 50 pop for Saturday at this time yesterday, and will go ahead with a 60 pop for tomorrow morning based on pattern recognition and the support from the NAM-4KNSSL.  I should probably go even higher, but due to the GFS staying a little south, I'll keep it at 60%.  It's worth noting the EURO has been SOLID all week long regarding the Friday and Saturday time period. 

The upper air flow will be dominated by a large cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes into the Midwest next week.  This means we'll have a chance at a few systems next week, including a frontal passage by Monday afternoon and evening, and potentially another MCS type event for Thursday into Friday.   GFS and EURO data differ greatly regarding the Thursday morning MCS potential, but I'll continue with a slight mention in the forecast.  We'll also keep a slight mention for the Monday evening frontal passage.  

The official high in Tulsa yesterday: 85.  The normal high today is 85, with a normal low of 63.

Only a trace of rain was officially recorded yesterday at Tulsa International Airport.  Our total year to date remains at 22.36 inches and supports a deficit of nearly -7.00 for the year compared to normal.

Sunrise this morning will be at 7:06AM for Tulsa, and sunset tonight at 7:32PM. 

Super Typhoon Sanba is an extremely dangerous storm in the West Pacific.  This storm is expected to produce sustained winds at 179 mph with gusts nearing 220mph!  This system is taking a direct path to Japan and may have a direct impact on Okinawa.  Unreal!