Thursday Morning Update

Our pattern is changing and will allow a chance of showers and storms during the next 48 to 60 hours along with fall like temperatures. 

The cold front has already entered northwestern OK and is moving rapidly across the state this morning.  The boundary will cross the Tulsa area around 11AM and then nearing the I-40 area by 3PM.  A few showers and storms may form along and ahead of the boundary this morning, but model data supports more post frontal precipitation developing ( moving into our area )by afternoon as the main upper level trough brings additional energy to the state.  Temps will level off in the lower 80s near Tulsa by noon and will fall into the lower 70s late this afternoon along with a gusty north wind.  Temps will rise to the upper 80s across southern OK before cooler air arrives this evening.  A few strong to severe storms are possible today, but mainly across the southern third of the state or into north Texas where afternoon readings will be warmest. 

A portion of the trough will move across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region today while the southern end of the system will stay to our west and form an elongated upper level low for the weekend.  

Scattered showers and storms may persist through the overnight hours into midday Friday near Northeastern OK, but additional showers may also be possible Saturday and Sunday due to an upper level system that will form to our west Friday and move across the state this weekend.  We added a slight chance of showers to the weekend forecast yesterday, and we'll be increasing the probability for the Saturday time periods to near 40%.  I still need to stress that my confidence remains on the low side regarding the exact precipitation chances and timing for this weekend. Temps this weekend will start in the upper 50s and finish in the upper 70s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday.  

GFS and EURO data both support another cold front moving across the state Monday evening with a nice cool down into early next week.  GFS data yesterday supported an MCC (complex of storms) Monday evening into pre-dawn Tuesday as the upper air flow will be sharply from the northwest. Today's runs are not as bullish on this probability and we'll keep the Monday evening storm chances in the 20 to 30% range.   

The highly amplified pattern will continue into early next week meaning a chance of another system or two by the middle to end of next week.  It also means a very pleasant temperature regime will exist next week with fall like weather for the entire state.

Yesterday the high in Tulsa was 91.  The normal-average high is 85 and the low is 63.

Record high today is 103F from 1965, and the low is 49F from 1960.

Rainfall for the year is currently at 22.36 inches.  We are -6.79 inches of precipitation below our normal precipitation for the time period, which is 29.15".

Sunrise today will be at 7:05AM with Friday mornings sunset at 7:33PM.

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Thanks for reading the morning weather discussion!

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone