Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, September 12th 2012, 6:21 am
By: Alan Crone

Highs today will be in the lower 90s with a gusty south wind from 15 to 25 mph.  A rather active weather pattern will begin tomorrow and may last into early next week.  

We're looking at a cold front arriving for the Thursday midday period with a good chance of showers and storms through Friday midday.  Cooler air will follow through the weekend, but will any more rain fall this weekend?

 The short term model guides are good regarding the main upper air pattern and surface reflection.  This means a gusty south wind will be present today with highs in the lower 90s.  The fire danger will be a major concern across the state with some locations to our west possibly flirting with Red Flag Warning criteria. At this point, humidity values this afternoon will keep NW OK out of the official Red Flag Warning.  

Our front will move across the area Thursday by noon in Tulsa bringing a round of thunderstorms to the region by Thursday afternoon and evening.  Post frontal precipitation is likely to occur into pre-dawn Friday and may last until the midday time period.  The temps Friday will stay in the lower or mid-70s along with a nice north breeze in the 10 to 15 mph range.  But the forecast for the rest of the weekend is tricky to say the least. 

Medium range guidance all suggest some energy will lag behind the main upper level trough that passes across southern Canada Thursday night into Friday.  The long wave trough will extend southward into the southern plains and will not clear the area until the weekend.  EURO data has consistently been closing off or pinching off a portion of the southern end of the trough and creating a decent amount of lift moving over Oklahoma this weekend.  This results in the model breaking out a large area of rain Saturday and part of Sunday across central and eastern OK.  The GFS has a similar solution, but does not create the same amount of lift for the region, and consequently keeps most of the weekend precipitation on the light side with highs in the upper 70s or lower 80s.  O the joys of forecasting. We'll be adding a slight chance of showers for the weekend (20%) but may be increasing these probabilities for both Saturday and Sunday in subsequent updates. 

The early part of next week will also feature some controversy with the next wave approaching the state.  GFS data is very strong the trough and creates a strong storm system Monday and Tuesday while the EURO is less bullish and would result in only a slight mention of showers or storms for NE OK.  We have very little confidence in the weekend forecast and therefore the early portion of next week also falls into this low confidence package. The prudent call is to mention a chance of storms Monday night into early Tuesday with the front passing the area late Monday evening.  

Hopefully we'll be able to have a better handle on the weekend during the next 36 hours. 


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Thanks for reading the morning weather update!  Have a super great day.


Alan Crone