Tuesday Morning Update

We're in store for another warm afternoon with highs in the lower 90s both today and tomorrow.  Our next cold front is on schedule for Thursday afternoon and evening and will bring a chance of rain and storms to the region.  The timing of the front has changed slightly, but would still support a chance of rain and storms beginning Thursday evening through Midday Friday.  We think the system will be far enough removed from the area Friday evening to keep the precipitation off the Saturday time period.  If we do have any showers or storms Saturday, they would be confined to the southeastern portion of the state, according to the latest runs of the various models. It's too early to be specific about Friday Night Football, but the general thought would be to keep a slight mention for the Friday evening time periods.  There is an outlier in the model data this morning that would bring another upper level system into the area Saturday and Sunday.   

Our short term issues will resolve around the potential fire weather concerns as gusty south winds are expected to increase speeds today as the pressure begins to drop to our northwest.  Red Flag Warnings will be issued for portions of NW OK today as relative humidity will drop below 20% during the afternoon and wind speeds will exceed 20 mph.

Conditions across NE OK will not fit the Red Flag Warning criteria, but it may be close during a few hours this afternoon.  Regardless of the exact parameters, we anticipate the fire danger to be high today across the state.  If a fire forms, weather conditions would support a rapid spread.  Please use caution today.  State wide burn bans remain in place.  

Temperatures are not quite as cool this morning compared to the previous three, but we're experiencing some readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s with clear sky.  Daytime highs will move into the lower or mid-90s today and tomorrow. 

The front will bring the round of showers and storms to the state Thursday evening into Friday morning, and the data supports some convective and potential energy ahead of the boundary Thursday afternoon.  The bulk of the upper air energy will remain well north of the state, but upward vertical velocities combined with the expected low level moisture and energy should produce a few strong to severe storms.  The main issue would be hail and damaging winds.  GFS and EURO data also supports a post frontal precipitation period from pre-dawn Friday through midday.  This is not expected to be severe. As I stated above, the EURO run from last night is now producing an upper level low across West Texas Friday evening and slowly moves the system across OK this weekend.  This results in the EURO depicting a wet and cool weekend with rain chances both Saturday and Sunday.  These data seem to be the outlier in the group, and we have discounted this solution for today's forecast.  Obviously we'll be watching data carefully during the next day or so.  Stay tuned regarding the weekend.  

Temperatures behind the system will allow Saturday morning lows to drop into the 50s with highs in the upper 70s along with mostly sunny conditions and a light north breeze.  Sunday afternoon temps will move back into the lower or mid-80s along with a return of southeast winds during the afternoon.  

The next system will be arriving by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  

Our official high Monday was 91F recorded at 4:40PM from Tulsa International Airport.  The normal-average high for today is 86 and the low is 63.  Our records today include a high of 103  from 1909 and a record low of 45 from 1940.  

Sunrise this morning will occur at 7:03AM and Sunset tonight will be at 7:364PM.  These times are specific for Tulsa and will be slightly different for locations from east to west across the state.

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Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather Update!

Have a super day!

Alan Crone