Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, September 5th 2012, 6:26 am
By: Alan Crone

Temperatures will be near the upper 90s to 102 today with a chance of a few showers and storms.  A welcomed cool down is still expected for the weekend. 

A few scattered showers and storms are located across Northern OK and Southern Kansas this morning and will be moving slowly east to southeast during the next few hours.  A weak boundary will be moving southward late this afternoon or evening bringing another chance of scattered storms by midday to early afternoon across central and northeastern OK.  These scattered showers and storms combined with an increase in cloud cover should keep the daytime highs in the upper 90s with a few spots hitting from 100 to 102.  

This morning's activity is very scattered but could persist through 8AM in some spots.  Another chance for thunderstorm development will occur later this evening to our northwest with a small complex of storms possibly moving near our area later this evening. We're not expecting severe weather this morning, but some gusty winds will be possible near thunderstorms.  Later this afternoon or evening, a few storms may become severe producing damaging winds.  

The mid-level ridge will continue to slowly flatten and slide southwest as a strong upper trough is expected to move across the northern and central plains by Thursday into Friday.  This upper air trough will drive a surface boundary into the state by Friday afternoon and evening bringing a round of rain and storm activity followed by seasonally cooler air for the weekend.   Morning lows will drop into the lower 60s Saturday morning followed by afternoon highs in the upper 70s!  Sunday morning's lows may be in the mid to upper 50s near Tulsa, with some lower 50s across extreme northern OK.  Afternoon highs Sunday will be in the lower 80s.  Gusty north winds Saturday should subside by Sunday, but the pleasant weather will continue Monday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.  

A reminder: The next 24 to 36 hours may also feature one or more small thunderstorm complexes that form to out northwest and move southeast with time.  This will occur as the pattern transitions to more of a westerly to northwest flow aloft pattern.  The data is not exactly bullish on the storm chances, but the pattern recognition continues to suggest we keep a decent chance of this MCS activity in the forecast cycle.  

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Alan Crone