The old Isaac circulation is located across southwestern Arkansas this morning and is moving northward. The system is continuing to produce rainfall near and east of the circulation, but the westward side of the circulation continues to struggle as dry and stable air is located to our west. If we do see some banding of showers, the amounts will be near or below a quarter of an inch at best. The higher rain chances and the higher totals will be confined to the OK-Arkansas state line along with some locations across extreme SE Kansas. Northern Arkansas and southern Missouri will continue to see decent rainfall today and tonight as the circulation lifts northward and accelerates this afternoon. Friday night football games may see some spotty showers but most games will more than likely remain dry. Locations NE of Tulsa may have to deal with some spotty showers for the first part of the game tonight, but the odds will remain on the low side.
Saturday morning the system is expected to accelerate eastward into the Ohio River Valley as it weakens and this means our weekend will be dominated by hot weather with highs Saturday in the mid 90s and Sunday nearing 100. There may be a few lingering showers early Saturday across extreme NE OK, but this probably will remain near or less than 20%. I'll more than likely not include this slight probability on the main 7 day planner graphic at this point.
The mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to crank up this weekend into early next week bringing the heat back to the region. Surface winds from the south-southwest will also add to the heat potential with highs Sunday and Monday approaching 100. The fire danger will also be increasing and state wide burn bans will remain in place.
Model data supports another boundary approaching our area by Wednesday and Thursday as the mid-level ridge flattens and allows a possible northwest flow aloft to brush the state. This pattern would support a chance of thunderstorms forming to our northwest and moving into NE OK Wednesday or Thursday. But I'll keep the chance very low for Wed and Thursday until we get closer to the time period of interest.
I'll post more later this morning on my facebook page
I'm also on twitter; @alancrone
Have a nice Friday!