Took some time off over the weekend for a family reunion. Was a little apprehensive that the rains which we so badly needed would create a problem as we had about 30 people at our place. Could not have turned out better though as the Saturday morning rains stopped before everyone arrived and everyone had left by the time the rains returned that night. And the rainfall was certainly welcome as the map on the right shows, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. This is the statewide rainfall over the last 4 days and clearly indicates some folks received a good soaking. This was not a drought breaker by any stretch, but certainly provided some badly needed, short term relief.
Now, if we can just get some good follow-up rains in the weeks ahead we will be able to put a more significant dent in the on-going drought situation. And that, at least in the short term, depends on the ultimate destination of Isaac which is now moving through the Gulf of Mexico. As has been the case for days now, there continues to be considerable spread in the various solutions that are available. The computerized simulations of the atmosphere that we rely on for not only short term guidance, but for periods of a week or more continue to struggle with the handling of Isaac. The solution spread ranges from the remnants coming directly over OK to the system staying east of the Mississippi River and just about everywhere in between.
Obviously, that has significant implications regarding how our weather turns out ranging from a very wet solution if the remnants come over the state to a completely dry one if it stays far enough east. The latest and greatest data is currently suggesting that we will be on the extreme western fringe of the circulation with only a slight chance of rain during the day Friday and perhaps into the day Saturday.
In the meantime, the rain footprint from the weekend rains should help to keep temperatures somewhat in check despite lots of late August sunshine. We will see some daytime, fair weather cumulus clouds, but no mention of rainfall except for possibly extreme SE OK. Our surface winds will be primarily from a N to NE direction up to 10-15 mph during the day, but that will not provide any cooling and our daytime highs should reach the low-mid 90s over the next few days. Fair night time skies and light winds will result in a heavy morning dew with temperatures dropping into the 60s to near 70.
If Isaac does by pass us, the prospects for additional, significant rainfall are pretty slim as ridging aloft is expected to dominate for much of the following week as well. That would result in above normal temperatures and little or no chance of rain not only this week but well into the following week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.