Could Isaac Be Eying Us?

How about that rain this weekend?! The Tulsa metro area received a nice soaker totaling, on average, 2-3". Many other locations north of I-40 received 1-3", much of which fell overnight Saturday into Sunday. Grove was our rainfall winner where 5.7" fell over the weekend! Despite some minor flooding issues at the height of the storms Saturday night, that was just the kind of rain that our region needed in given our exceptional drought. I'm certainly glad our forecast verified because we've been looking at another dry week ahead. But there's a chance that may change.

Our attention is turning to Isaac, which remains a strong Tropical Storm near the Florida Keys Sunday evening. As it moves northwest over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to intensify into a hurricane. Over the past 24 hours, there has been a fairly dramatic shift in its track. The upper-level wave that brought us our weekend rain may have less of an impact than previously modeled. This means it may not make a turn to the north as quickly. Instead, the computer models are tracking it much further to the west (as shown in the forecast track above). This could bring it near or over New Orleans - or even west of there. This is clearly something Louisiana residents don't want to hear, especially as we approach the 7th anniversary of Katrina's landfall on Wednesday. Isaac will likely have winds near or over 100 mph as it moves inland. If it happens to be steered further west in the "forecast cone" by the ridge to its east, then we might be in line to see the remnants of Isaac in eastern Oklahoma. Several computer models show that scenario, hence, the changing forecast I mentioned earlier in this post. Rain could occur Friday if Isaac makes Oklahoma its post-landfall target. By then, Isaac would likely be a mere Tropical Depression, but we still might be the recipients of some gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Later in the week, we'll have a much clearer idea if we, in fact, get to benefit from some tropical moisture. In the meantime, it will feel very tropical outside. The weekend rain will mean added moisture and humidity this week. With plenty of sunshine expected through Thursday, you can count on some muggy conditions.

I'll keep you posted on Isaac's progress, track, and potential impact in Oklahoma on Facebook and on Twitter. Be sure to follow, @GroganontheGO!