Wednesday Morning Update


Wednesday, August 22nd 2012, 6:21 am
By: Alan Crone


We're in good shape today with highs reaching the lower to mid-90s along with south winds and sunny conditions.  The fire danger will be elevated both today and tomorrow as wind speeds gradually increase.  The next storm system of note is entering the west coast and will spread rain and storm chances in our direction Friday through the weekend. 

The incoming model data continues to support an increase in the probability for rain and storms this weekend.  The EURO has consistently painted a near 100% coverage of rain and storms both Saturday and Sunday, while the GFS has been playing catch up.  The incoming NAM, while not quite into the time domain for Sunday, does also lend some support for an increase in the weekend probabilities.  I'll continue to keep the pops somewhat low compared to the actual data but the chance for weekend rain and storms will continue to increase. 

The timing and onset of the Friday chance is a little problematic with some support for Friday morning storms across western OK.  I keep a 20 pop for Friday afternoon and evening with highs Friday around 90.  Temps this weekend will be in the mid-80s with morning lows in the lower 70s along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph. 

Both sets of extended data support a frontal passage Monday morning with the EURO supporting a northwest wind and the GFS a northeast wind.  The two models do continue with some differences in the positioning of the major synoptic features, including the positioning of the Isaac by early next week.  The GFS would suggest a Cat 1 hurricane approaching the Florida Eastern Coast line Monday while the EURO keeps the storm just south of Cuba and entering the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week as a major hurricane.  This morning's official forecast from the NHC favors more of the GFS solution ( and also a large contingent of support from numerous other hurricane models) and will leave the leftward motion of the EURO as an outlier.  This means the system would be approaching southern Florida by early next week.  It's also of note that most of the historical (analog) data from this tropical storm formation, time, and early track supports a move up the east coast or slightly right of this track, off the coast into the Atlantic.  Past analogs are not always supportive of future storm movement. 

 

Highs today and tomorrow should be in the mid-90s.  The normal high is 93. The record is 106 from 1936. 

The sunset continues to drop a minute almost every day.  Tonight's sunset will be at 8:04pm and sunrise tomorrow at 6:48am.