Friday Morning Update


Friday, August 17th 2012, 6:25 am
By: Alan Crone


The forecast will continue to call for a chance of showers or storms during the next 48 hours as an active upper air flow will bring disturbances near the area.  Today we expect a sun-cloud mix with a very slight chance of isolated showers or storms this morning.  High temps will move into the upper 80s or lower 90s along with northeast surface winds around 10 to 18 mph.  Later tonight, another disturbance is likely to form thunderstorms along the Front Range of the Rockies.  These storms will move southeast with time and eventually should enter the northern and north central portion of the state overnight or early tomorrow morning.  The main trajectory of this disturbance could easily keep most of the precipitation a county or so west of the Tulsa metro, but it's a close call.  We have a decent chance of this activity reaching our area and I'll keep this probability around 50% on the main graphic.   

Saturday evening yet another disturbance is likely to approach with another round of showers or storms.  The GFS is a little more west with this system compared with the NAM and the EURO which bring the storms directly over NE and Central OK late Saturday evening into the early Sunday morning hours.  We'll position the pop for late Saturday night and increase this probability from 50 to 60%.  The model data looks good at this point for some widespread storms, but I must also stress the sparse nature of yesterday's afternoon thunderstorm activity that was non-existent for a large portion of the Eastern OK area.   

The upper air flow will remain from the Northwest through at least Wednesday but could become more "zonal" or west to east by the end of next week.  This means the weather pattern would limit the storm chances late next week as surface temperatures would climb to near or slightly above normal readings.  The good news:  temps will remain mild this weekend into early next week!  Morning lows will easily drop into the 60s with highs only in the mid-80s this weekend.  The low temperatures Monday morning may drop into the upper 50s for some of the valleys of Northeastern OK.   

The normal Tulsa high for today: 94.  Projected high: 89.

Rainfall for the year: 19.32.  Normal for the year to date: 25.96  with a departure of -6.64".

 

Next:

My kids head back to school today.  Our sweet girl is 13, and her fun loving brother is 10. Wow.  Time flys.  While I'm a winter guy regarding the weather, I'm a summer guy regarding my kids.  We love it when we're home in the summer and doing the " summer things", but once again, it's back to school and eventually a busy fall schedule.  If you're heading back to school soon ( or your kids) all the best to you in the upcoming year.