Hot, Chance Storms Today.


Sunday, August 12th 2012, 9:22 am
By: News On 6


Notice the updated QPF map on the right. Starting to get more optimistic regarding our chances of receiving some significant rainfall during the coming week. This version is valid through this coming Friday morning and we have several opportunities for rain just about every day through Thursday night.

Some shower activity has managed to linger into the morning hours to start the day today, but those will be dissipating as the day wear on. A cool front will be arriving after dark tonight, but ahead of that

boundary we expect to see at least some storm development late this afternoon. Although the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall still looks to be on the order of 20%, those storms that do form will be capable of causing locally damaging winds and some hail along with brief periods of heavy rainfall. That will most likely be to the SE of I-44.

Monday looks to be dry with mostly sunny skies, but a stronger NW flow pattern is developing and the data is now showing the potential for a more organized area of showers/storms to possibly affect the state on Tuesday. That is subject to change, but if it does materialize then temperatures will be much cooler than the going forecast and our rain chances will be much higher. Will wait to see better consistency before getting too carried away with that possibility, so still keeping the rain chances at 20% for now, but that may go up. Wednesday will also have a slight chance of showers/storms, but for now will maintain the going 20% in the forecast.

Thursday still looks to be our best chance of getting wet with a stronger cool front, at least for August, expected to arrive late in the day. For now, am keeping the rain chances at 40% for late Thursday and into the morning hours of Friday, but if subsequent model runs maintain the current trend then those chances will be going up. All in all, several chances of receiving some badly needed rainfall during the coming week.

Temperature wise, today looks to be the last of the hot ones for quite some time and clouds are playing havoc with the temperature forecast this afternoon. Still looks like we should be near triple digits though along with a brisk southerly wind creating an enhanced fire danger. Monday will only be slightly cooler with mostly sunny skies, a brisk north wind, and daytime highs in the mid 90s. Huge bust potential on Tuesday due to the uncertainty regarding the NW flow pattern actually producing the clouds/showers/storms; for now will go with lower 90s, but it could turn out much cooler. Brisk southerly winds on Wednesday and a slight chance of rain should also keep daytime highs in the 90s.

Then there is the latter part of the week. The strong cool front arriving on Thursday and the more widespread showers/storms should also keep daytime highs in the lower 90s but after that we are expecting daytime highs only in the 80s for Friday through the weekend. That is certainly subject to change, but it sure looks promising at this time.

So there is hope. Stay tuned and check back for updates.