If you thought it seemed unusually cool this morning, you are absolutely correct. In fact, it looks like we tied the record for the coolest morning low for this date; quite a contrast to all the record warm morning lows we have been setting in recent weeks. If you look at the map of low temperatures across the state this morning, you will notice that the Mesonet site at Nowata even made it into the lower 50s, quite cool indeed compared to how the rest of this summer has been.
Despite this very cool start, the sunny skies and dry vegetation will result in a quick warm-up and daytime highs should reach the low-mid 90s this afternoon which is pretty close to normal for this time of year. Our winds will be light and generally from an E to SE direction which will help with the fire danger for today. But, with dew point temperatures in the 40s, the relative humidity will drop to near 20% during the heat of the day.
For Sunday, stronger southerly winds will be up to 20 mph or more and although the dew point will rise into the 50s, the warmer temperatures will still result in relative humidity levels dropping into the lower 20% range during the heat of the day. Speaking of which, look for daytime highs to be back near triple digits for Sunday afternoon. In other words, Sunday will have an enhanced fire danger once again.
There will also be a chance of showers/storms on Sunday, particularly for late in the day and through the overnight hours in advance of a cool front that will be arriving during that time. Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a very wet system and the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall will only be near 20%.
Monday will then have mostly sunny skies and a brisk northerly wind which should keep daytime temperatures in the mid 90s after starting off near 70 that morning. SE winds Tue and southerly winds on Wed will quickly warm things back up with daytime highs expected to be near triple digits once again. Partly cloudy skies will help hold temperatures somewhat in check and may even result in a few isolated showers/storms, but the chances are less than 20%.
Don't want to get your hopes up too much, but at least a couple of the longer range products(ECMWF & CMC) are suggesting a more significant system moving through on Thursday. If current trends are maintained in subsequent model runs, this system may bring not only much cooler conditions our way for the latter part of the week but also a decent chance of rain. However, the GFS is much less supportive of that scenario so will take a more conservative approach until a better consensus develops.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.