Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, August 9th 2012, 6:26 am
By: Alan Crone

We expect another toasty afternoon with highs in the 98 to 104 range.  Northwest winds will increase speeds once a front passes the area.  Any showers or storms will more than likely be confined to the far southeastern part of the state but a rouge storm can't totally be ruled out across NE OK. Most of the activity today will be in Arkansas and points eastward. 

We had numerous scattered storms yesterday afternoon and evening across the southern third of the state along with a few storms dotting the northeastern OK horizon.  I still think most folks missed out on the rain across the NE region but our friends southeast of Tulsa did fairly well with beneficial rainfall.  The Leflore county area had so much rain that flash flood warnings had to be issued by the National weather service.  A few reports of damaging winds were also received as downburst winds were common.   

This morning we may see a few scattered storms across the region before the focus will return to the southern part of the state where additional showers or storms will be possible as a front slides across the area.  This front will also bring a modest cool down for Friday and possibly Saturday before the warmer air returns early next week.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to weaken and is now positioned well to our west.  This will allow a northwest flow aloft to brush the state into early next week.  Some late night and early morning storm complexes may be a possibility but the latest data indicates the chance should remain on the low side.  I have kept a slight chance for Sunday into Monday, and then a slight chance for Wednesday.  

The temperatures will more than likely climb back to near or above 100 by at least Sunday, and Saturday afternoon may be close.  EURO data supports temps in the 850 mb range around 20 to 22C early next week while the GFS is slightly cooler. 

The EURO-GFS both indicate another front may arrive Monday with a weak wind shift but very little cooling would be expected.  I'll also keep the slight mention for a few storms during this period.  

There are a few disturbances located across the eastern Pacific Basin this morning and some data is indicating moisture from these tropical storms may attempt to move across the Mexican Plateau and into the southwestern US in the next 5 to 10 days.  We're not excited about this probability at this point, but we'll be watching closely.