Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, August 7th 2012, 6:26 am
By: Alan Crone

A few isolated storms are located across southern Kansas and extreme northern OK this morning and will move southward around 20 to 25 mph.  These storms are not expected to last too long, but a few may survive and move across a few locations of the northern third of the state this morning.  One or two of the storms may produce some gusty winds in the 40 to 50 mph range.  The chance for these scattered and widely isolated storms to move into your area will remain around 20%.  The temperatures today will still climb into the 100 to 105 range and the national Weather Service has issued another heat advisory for portions of East Central and Northern OK including the Tulsa metro.  

The mid-level ridge of high pressure that has been such a dominate feature over the state for the past month is slowly moving westward today and tomorrow.  This will allow a modest northwest flow pattern to brush the state today and this upper flow may "sharpen" a little as we move closer to the weekend.  The net impact will be to allow a few disturbances to move over the region producing a few scattered storms.  The chance tomorrow may increase tomorrow across part of Northern OK and we'll keep a 30% chance of storms in the forecast for the Wednesday time period.    

Thursday a "cold front" is expected to slide across the state allowing for northeast winds both Thursday and Friday.  The temperatures in the 5K ft. level are expected to "cool" into Saturday and this should allow the surface temperatures to drop into the 90s.  Another disturbance may be possible early next week with another chance of storms Sunday into Tuesday.  The exact temperature profile for the weekend into early next week is a little problematic.  I have used a blend of GFS and EURO, but there's not doubt in my mind that data will change a few more times before we can settle into a temperature forecast with high confidence.    

The fire danger, the heat advisory, and the ozone alert will remain high priorities across the northeastern part of the state.