Tuesday Morning Update


Tuesday, July 31st 2012, 6:28 am
By: Alan Crone


Another hot day is expected with highs nearing 110 to 113 for the next few days.  The fire danger will be very high.

The data is not as clear cut this morning regarding the exact positioning of the mid-level ridge of high pressure for the next 48 hours.  Once these big ridges start to crank up the heat, they're very hard to move out of the region, but this morning the data seems to suggest the center of the ridge will jog only slightly to the west for the next 48 hours.  This would not change our forecast dramatically, but it would suggest we make some minor adjustments to the previous forecast.    At this point in the cycle, I have decided to only lower the highs about 1 to 2 degrees from previous forecasts and will only mention the possibly of the isolated storm chances today and tomorrow across the northern third of the area.  The NSSL 4 K does not produce any substantial returns for our area, but the 05Z HRRR did crank out a few isolated storms moving from SE Kansas into Northern OK this afternoon around 4pm.  A quick sneak peak at the observational network this morning does reveal the northwest flow closer to the region today compared to yesterday, but the layer of extremely warm air aloft should effectively cap the atmosphere.  I suppose there would be a slight chance of a few high based elevated storms, but the chance remains very low.  Some clouds should move over the area this morning and this afternoon but the hot conditions will remain.

Temps for the next few days will still top out around 110 to 112 before slowly moving back down to around 103 by the weekend.  Morning lows will also begin to slowly decrease from the mid-80s into the upper 70s or lower 80s by the weekend.  The heat wave will continue through the weekend, but the overall temperature regime will be slowly decreasing after the middle of the week.

The weekend may feature a few isolated storms with a weak boundary nearby, but I have elected to not introduce any pops on the 7 day planner for this cycle.  The GFS and EURO also seem to suggest the ridge will be strong and close to the area next week.  This means we'll more than likely stay near or slightly above 100 for the following week with no major relief from the heat wave.

 

Yesterday's high was 109 in Tulsa, 111 from Jenks Riverside, 109 Okmulgee, and 110 from Bartlesville.

The normal high is 94 with the normal average low of 73.  Today's record high is 108 from 1980. 

The rainfall deficit for the year is now -5.51 inches.