Hard to imagine we missed out on thunderstorms last night. Numerous storms occurred along and south of the Tulsa county area, but most of the Tulsa metro once again remained dry while neighbors both to the north and south experienced storms. Several of the storms produced damaging winds from 60 to 70 mph.
The real deal front is still north of the region this morning and should retreat and move northward into Central Kansas by midday. The RAW NAM output is extremely hot today but we'll make some downward adjustments in those areas that did receive some rainfall yesterday.
The mid-level ridge is expected to move back over the area soon and this will bring the heat back to the region and shut off the precipitation chances for most of the area. The EURO is suggesting a weakness in the ridge across the far eastern part of the state. This would result in a few late afternoon storms along the OK-Ark state line almost every afternoon through the early part of next week.
The temperatures in the 850mb level really crank up next week near and west of our immediate area and this would definitely support some surface readings from 106 to 110. I have increased the temps from Sunday to Tuesday to 107, but frankly these numbers could be a degree or two higher. The ground continues to dry out quickly and the feedback would result in even hotter conditions early next week.
Additionally, the data also supports the mid-level ridge sliding westward by the middle of the week allowing for another period of northwest flow aloft over the state. This may bring another round of showers or storms into the region by Wednesday or Thursday.
Temperatures today will be moving from 100 to 104 with south winds developing by afternoon. The heat advisories will be back and the Tulsa metro may also be in the running for another few days of an excessive heat warning or at least heat advisories.
The high yesterday in Tulsa was 99 despite the clouds.
The normal average high for today is 94, with the record high of 107 recorded on this date in 2011.
Sunset tonight is at 8:33PM for the Tulsa area.