Tuesday Morning Update


Tuesday, July 17th 2012, 6:04 am
By: Alan Crone


We're moving back to another stretch of hot weather as afternoon highs will move into the upper 90s or near 100 today and tomorrow before climbing to triple digits by the end of the week.  Very little chance of organized storms will be near the area. 

Yesterday's official high from Tulsa International Airport topped out at only 96 degrees, just one degree shy of our forecasted high.  This persistence based forecast lends some credence to keep the high today near 99 and not raise the temps to over 100 until Wednesday.  But RAW NAM data this morning indicates the highs for Tulsa at 101 today, 103 tomorrow, and 105 Thursday.  Low level wind trajectories also indicate a south-southwest breeze during the afternoon. This would have a tendency to "push" the moisture eastward allowing for the daytime highs to move into the serious hot range.   Morning lows will be in the mid to upper 70s as the afternoon index values move to near 105 prompting the issuance of heat advisories for some locations by the National Weather Service and temperatures will be very close to excessive heat warning criteria for the Tulsa metro for Thursday through the weekend.   No advisories are in effect at this moment, but later this week, some of these products may be underway.  

Many additional counties are now being placed under county-wide burn bans due to the obvious increasing fire danger as the lack of significant rainfall coupled with the drying vegetation begins to advance wild fire spread conditions.  Please remain aware of the increasing fire danger and the potential for burn bans.  Burn ban violators may face stiff fines and penalties for starting fires.  Most county issued burn bans do allow an exception for gas or electric grilling but please check your local county administration for specifics regarding any ban for your area. 

The overall pattern won't change too much this week as a mid-level ridge of high pressure will amplify and become the dominate feature.  The EURO data indicates a return of a 594DM ridge by Friday into the weekend across southern Kansas and part of northern OK.  Before the ridge attempts to totally clamp down on the area, there may be a slight weakness underneath Friday or Saturday.  This "could" mean a slight pop for the region, but I'm only inclined to continue our very slight "mention" of pops in the forecast for this period at generally less than 10%.   

As a reminder, keep hydrated, wear light colored and loose fitting clothing, and keep the sun screen handy as the ultraviolet rays will be quite high tomorrow and for the next few days.