Notice the map on the right which is the expected average temperature signal for the time period of July 14-18. Notice in particular that the signal strongly favors that OK will be below normal with respect to temperatures during that time frame. Now that is not to say that we will not be hot; keep in mind normal daytime temperatures are in the 93-94 degree range for this time of year so if this verifies we could still be in the low 90s and be below normal. More importantly, this strongly suggests that a return to the triple digit heat of the past several weeks is very unlikely. Not only for that time period, but the forecast for the coming week is also for normal to below normal daytime temperatures so we are getting a nice break in the heat wave.
Now, if only we could get a good, widespread rainfall event. So far, that does not appear very likely. We have had scattered showers/storms again this afternoon, some of which will linger through the night tonight. We have another good chance of showers/storms during the day Monday as a cool front pushes through the state. The slow movement of those showers/storms which do occur will result in locally heavy rains and potentially some strong, gusty winds. But, that will not affect everyone so this will not be a drought busting rainfall event for the state as a whole. For some lucky folks, an inch or more of rain can be expected, but most of us will not receive nearly that much. In fact, the chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall looks to be on the order of 40% for this evening and into the night and about 50% for Monday. So, if you catch a good rain, count your blessings.
At least the NE winds behind the front together with the mostly cloudy skies and chances of rain will keep our daytime highs in the lower 90s, if even that warm for Monday. A brisk NE wind on Tuesday should result in daytime highs near 90 with any threat of lingering showers/storms pretty well confined to locations S of I-40. After that, partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and an E to NE wind should result in morning lows near 70 and daytime highs in the lower 90s for the latter part of the week. By the weekend, a return to southerly winds will result in somewhat warmer temperatures, pretty close to normal actually, but the humidity levels will also be higher so it will feel warmer. Not only that, but we could see a few showers/storms; particularly in the more terrain favored areas for later in the week and especially into the weekend.
So, at least some rain is in the forecast along with a break in the heat wave which is expected to continue through this coming week and into the following week as well. So enjoy the pattern change, the less hot weather conditions, and what shower/storm activity we receive while you can. There is still the rest of July and all of August ahead of us.
Stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.