Thursday Update

Thursday, June 28th 2012, 6:24 am
By: Alan Crone

Sunny and hot conditions are expected again across the state with highs from 103 to 106.  South to southwest winds will blow from 10 to 20 mph this afternoon.  

Slightly drier air filtered into the eastern part of our area yesterday afternoon, but gusty south winds mixed the atmosphere and we stayed in the 100 to 103 range for daytime highs, a few degrees shy of my projected high of 105.  The dry air has allowed for a wonderful start to the morning with some locations in the lower to mid-60s!  The temps will warm up rapidly today with the Tulsa metro approaching the 96 to 98 range around noon.  Today we will continue to call for a high near 106 with the south to southwest breeze at 10 to 20 mph even though model projections would support a high from 103 to 105.  The southwest component to the wind combined with the relatively dry air mass may allow for the 106 in the Tulsa metro.  After today the mid-level ridge will begin to slowly weaken allowing for a slight reduction in daytime highs during the weekend forecast.

Unfortunately, we do not see any significant chance of showers or storms on the horizon for our immediate areas but the GFS and EURO indicates a slight chance of a few isolated showers or storms Monday across extreme Eastern OK and western Arkansas.  

The morning lows have the potential to move into the mid and upper 70s for many locations during the weekend as the low level moisture slowly increases and south winds are expected to remain around 10 mph during the overnight hours.  The Tulsa metro has now been placed under an Excessive Heat Warning because of the overnight remaining in the mid and upper 70s and the heat index remaining near or slightly above 105.  The rule areas will not be included in the excessive heat warning because the overnight lows will drop a few more degrees compared to the Metro.  

The Ozone alert will remain for the Tulsa, OKC, and DFW metro regions for the next few days, but the alerts are issued on a day by day basis.  We're just assuming the alerts will be required through Friday.

Model projections continue to support the mid-level ridge weakening and changing shape over the next 48 hours.  This may allow for a tropical like wave to move across southern Texas during the next 48 hours but it would not have a direct impact on our weather.  The projections do support some weak energy sliding underneath the weakening ridge Monday across the ArkLaTex region that could spark off a few isolated showers or storms along the Eastern Ok state line.   I'll make mention of this possibility today but not include this 10% pop on the main 7 day planner.


Record high for June 28th:  106 from 1911-1925

Normal high: 91  Normal low: 71

Precipitation this month: 4.29   -0.13 from normal.

Precipitation this year: 17.55  -3.23 from normal.