Tuesday Morning Update

A few more clouds will be in the mix this morning through midday followed by mostly sunny conditions with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.  Strong south winds in the 15 to 30 mph range will be common both today and tomorrow.

The only hope is a few scattered or isolated storms today and tomorrow across far southeastern OK and western Arkansas.  Then we'll watch north as a weak boundary attempt to slide southward into southern Kansas and northern OK Thursday.  The models are consistent bringing some scattered storms near northern OK Thursday. .  The odds of any significant rainfall for a large area will be very small, but a few locations may experience a thunderstorm during this time period.  We added a slight chance of showers and storms for this period yesterday afternoon, and I'm going to keep the slight mention in the forecast for this cycle, but I doubt many of us will experience any storms. 

The winds may flip around Thursday if we do get some scattered storms across northern OK with Fridays winds from the northeast for most of the daytime periods.    

Temperatures may stay in the lower to mid-90s for the next few days with morning lows in the lower to mid-70s.  Gusty south winds will continue to bring low level moisture into the region which will keep us in the muggy feel for a while.  The temperature heat index values will be approaching the upper 90s near 100 for the next few days.

The extended models are all suggesting a mid-level ridge building into the region this weekend.  This is a typical summer time feature that brings sinking air to the region allowing daytime highs to move into the upper 90s near 100.  Temperatures in the 5000 ft. level are expected to support near 100 at the surface, especially for areas of western or central OK.  We may be spared the 100 degree readings due to the generally green vegetation and the impact of evapotranspiration of moisture into the atmosphere.   

Even if we are ahead of schedule for hot summer like temperatures, it would be very unusual for this ridge to remain in place for longer than a few days.  I would suspect that the ridge will slide eastward early next week allowing for another period of northwest flow aloft conditions over northeastern OK.  We may experience a back door boundary sliding across the Missouri Valley early next week. This would bring a few opportunities for some late night and early morning storms by the middle to end of next week.  Keep in mind; this is a full two weeks away, and maybe more of a "wish cast" than a true forecast. 

As always, I thank you for reading the morning update.  You can follow me on twitter...@alancrone. 

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Thanks again,

Alan