So far, only some spotty showers/storms have developed late this afternoon but conditions are such that some additional development is expected for the evening and perhaps through the overnight hours. If storms can get going, the instability is such that some damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail will be possible. The latest and greatest data has backed off on the areal coverage of any overnight activity, but any overnight storms will also have an impact on afternoon development on Father's Day. After that, our rain chances are pretty much in the isolated category as we go into the coming work week and the official beginning of summer on Wednesday.
So, will put the rain chances for tonight at 40% for the Tulsa area with lesser chances south of I-40 and somewhat better chances along the OK/KS state line. Sunday will see about a 30% chance of redevelopment during the day and if any of those can get their act together, they would also be capable of damaging winds and small hail.
Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should hold daytime temperatures into the upper 80s or near 90 and our overnight lows will be generally in the lower 70s. Those numbers are above normal for this time of year and as the week wears on, look for those numbers to go up a little more. In fact, mostly sunny skies for Monday and Tuesday will likely push our daytime temperatures into the lower 90s along with a gusty south wind. Those winds will be gusting to 25 or more during the day which will help provide some ventilation and at least some relief from the heat and humidity. Speaking of which, the combination of heat and humidity will put our heat index values in the mid-upper 90s so a cooling breeze will likely be welcome.
By later in the week, conditions aloft will be changing somewhat and there should be a little more moisture available. That will provide for a little more cloudiness so have backed off on the daytime highs somewhat as we head into the coming weekend. Still looking for the numbers to be above normal though along with only a few cooling showers/storms on any given day.
So, with the official arrival of Summer this week, the calendar will agree with what we have already been experiencing for quite some time now. As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.