Since the storms of last weekend, NE OK has been left high and dry as the map on the right shows courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Most locations have picked up some useful rains except the NE corner over the last five days. The rest of the state needed those rains as well, but the problem is at this time of year, it does not take long for things to dry back out. The moisture demands of the vegetation together with higher evaporation rates due to the warmer temperatures can dry out the soils rather quickly. Notice the soil moisture which is the second map and you can see there are many pockets of very dry soil across the state. We still need a good, widespread rainfall event and that does not appear likely any time soon.
There is hope for at least some scattered showers/storms, possibly by Sunday night and more likely into the day Monday and then a few lingering showers/storms for several days after that. Some of those storms will be capable of localized, heavy rains along with a marginal severe event with wind/hail the primary concern. But, those do not appear at this time to be the widespread, drought busting type of rains that many locations badly need.
A weak cool front is headed our way and should be moving through the state during the day Monday. Along and ahead of the boundary will be a chance for the showers/storms mentioned above with about a 20% chance Sunday night and 40% for Monday. It appears the boundary will stall out along the Red River providing additional chances for at least a few showers/storms through the middle part of the week as well. There is conflicting guidance regarding just how wet this system will be with a fairly wet signal coming from the GFS and a much drier one coming from the ECMWF. So, have opted to shoot for the middle ground until a consensus is reached or it becomes obvious which set of guidance has the better handle on the situation.
At any rate, ahead of the boundary, a brisk southerly wind of 10-20 mph today and plenty of sunshine should put afternoon temperatures near the 90 degree mark. Sunday morning will start off near 70 followed by an afternoon high in the lower 90s. Gusty S to SE winds on Sunday will also bring more moisture back into the state so the combination of heat and humidity will make it a bit more uncomfortable outside.
After that, the partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies and N to NE winds should knock a few degrees off temperatures both during the day and at night with lows back into the 60s and highs in the 80s through mid-week. A return to southerly winds and another warming trend should commence by late in the week and into the following weekend.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.