The pesky upper level low is finally moving away from the state and we're moving back into a warm, breezy, and humid weather pattern for the weekend. Daytime highs this weekend will move into the upper 80s and lower 90s along with morning lows in the lower 70s. Our next system will be arriving Monday into Tuesday with a chance of showers or storms.
The upper air low that brought many locations across southern OK rainfall is now sliding away from the state without depositing a drop across the northeastern quadrant of Oklahoma. The low may attempt to slide back to the northeast late tonight or early Saturday, but the impacts would stay away from our area allowing for a dry weekend.
EURO and GFS data suggest the low level trajectory from the Gulf of Mexico may be disrupted between now and Sunday morning. This means low level moisture may not be able to stream back across the state until Sunday morning or afternoon. As the cold front approaches the area Monday night, the moisture may be shallow or lacking a higher moisture content quality which could limit the amount or coverage of showers and storms with the system. We've been sticking with a 30% pop for the Monday evening time period with a 20 to follow Tuesday and Wednesday. This is the time of year when the jet stream begins to migrate into the northern latitudes and brings the central and northern plains into their severe weather seasons as ours typically begins to diminish. The main upper level system will be located well north of the southern plains and would bring the northern plains a severe weather threat Sunday into Monday. We may have a few strong to severe storms Monday evening, but the odds will remain on the low side for now.
The long range data for the following week indicates no major system approaching the southern plains but the mid-level flow will more than likely contain a few weak disturbances moving west to east over the state. This may be enough lift to generate scattered thunderstorms through the end of the week. I have not extended the slight pop into the Thursday or Friday period of next week, but this is something we'll be evaluating over the next few days.