Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, May 31st 2012, 5:17 am
By: Alan Crone

The storm system is rapidly moving away from the region this morning but there may be a few showers or storms forming this morning through early afternoon, more so across the far southeastern section of the area later today.  No additional severe storms are likely. 

Dry air will continue to move back down from the Missouri Valley into northeastern OK later today along with gusty north winds setting the stage for a pleasant afternoon with highs in the mid-70s.  If the clouds totally thin out, we could move to near 80, but I'll stick with a high near 78 for the graphics package and Friday morning lows in the lower 50s. 

The next few days are complicated with regards to the precipitation forecast as the various model outputs offer different solutions.  The bottom line:  I'll keep a slight chance for some late night and early morning activity across portions of the area due to a northwest flow aloft and a few disturbances that will move closer to the state this weekend.

The EURO and NAM bring a slight chance into the region Friday evening into Saturday morning, while the short term Hi Res 4KWRF offers a few showers and storms Friday morning across far northwestern OK.  The EURO seems to be the most bullish in depicting a vort producing storms for Saturday evening into Sunday morning with the GFS offering to retrograde the boundary as a retreating warm front Sunday into Monday.  All of these features suggest we keep a mention for some activity in the forecast for the next few days, but the timing and exact location will be nebulous at this point.  I'll more than likely position the pops for late night and early mornings, and keep them at or below 30% for any time period, with some periods near 20%.

Late next week, there should be another stronger system approaching the central and southern plains with another boundary bringing a round of storms Thursday or Friday.

We did pick up some much needed rainfall late last night through early this morning across portions of northeastern OK.  This will keep Tulsa out of the record books for the driest May on record, but we'll still remain in the dry category for the month with under an inch in the bucket compared to a normal May average of 5.87 inches of rain.

Several severe thunderstorm warnings were issued late yesterday evening into early this morning, but storm cores were relatively small, and mainly across rural areas.  At this point, we have not received any major storm damage reports, but some minor wind damage reports may be received during the early morning hours as property owner's survey locations at first light.