Thursday Morning Update

We're continuing with a windy and warm forecast for the next few days with both morning lows and afternoon highs well above the seasonal average.  Morning lows around 70 will be followed by afternoon highs near the upper 80s to 90 for the next few days.  A modestly moist lower atmosphere for May standards will keep the muggy feel into the afternoons but the gusty south winds will help with some relief.  Is an early "warm" May a guarantee for a hot summer?  Not necessarily.  I think we'll see a decent cool down early next week with morning lows dropping into the 50s and afternoon highs leveling off in the upper 70s.   

A surface dry line to our west and a weak cold front to out northwest may provide for an isolated storm or two this afternoon or tonight to out northwest.  Model data has been suggesting a few storms near the Ponca City to Wichita area for the past few days, and if the CAP doesn't totally suppress all activity, a few of these ISO storms will be possible later today.  If I'm correct in the location, these storms would not impact our viewing area.  

An upper level wave may form in base of the southern stream soon and could move across southwest Texas into north Texas by Friday.  EURO data had been suggesting that part of this system could clip the southern half of the state Friday, and I will continue to keep a slight mention in the forecast for Friday.  A severe threat will exist across the southwestern to south central portion of the state into north Texas Friday and Friday night.

The weekend appears mainly dry and windy, but by Sunday evening into Monday a cold front will enter the state bringing a round of thunderstorms to the area along the cooler air for the early part of next week.  Model data diverges quickly after Monday with the EURO staying mainly dry for northern OK with the GFS keeping some post frontal precip chances going for the early part next week.  I'm inclined to keep the mention of the precip into the forecast for several days next week.  It's May.  Some of these storms will probably be severe. 

Today is May 3^rd. 

May 3^, 1999.  A tornado outbreak occurred in Oklahoma and Kansas producing 74 tornadoes in less than 21 hours.  At one point, 4 tornadoes were on the ground at the same time.   Several strong and violent twisters occurred including the F-5 that devastated a 38 mile long path from near Chickasha into Moore and SE OKC.  The storms killed 46 people and injured nearly 800.  Over 8,000 homes, churches, and businesses were destroyed.