Unsettled Week Ahead.

This Easter Sunday may well turn out to be the most settled day of the week as far as our weather is concerned. The NE winds this morning behind a weak frontal boundary that has settled down along the Red River have also brought in somewhat drier air resulting in temperatures starting off in the 40s for many locations this morning. By this afternoon a light E wind under partly sunny to mostly sunny skies and with daytime temperatures near 70 makes for a pleasant day.

After today though, the rest of the coming week and through the coming weekend will see a much more unsettled pattern. Southerly winds will return on Monday, but aloft a NW wind flow pattern will set up which usually provides the weather forecasting community with many sleepless nights. In fact, we often refer to it as "Northwest flow, weatherman's woe". That pattern will then transition to an even more active pattern as a series of storm systems aloft will be dropping into the Southern Rockies and impacting OK for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

As is often the case in situations like this, there will be days with better chances of showers/storms than others, but those days are often very difficult to anticipate more than a day or two in advance. Thus, we are forced to use a rather broad brush in depicting our rainfall chances over the coming week. Notice the QPF map valid through Friday morning on the right and you can see that OK remains in the bulls eye regarding precipitation through that period.

For example, the guidance on Monday has varied considerably from one model run to the next with one set of guidance bringing a widespread area of showers/storms across E OK late in the day and the next keeping it further west. Despite the lack of consistency, the trends have favored the more western counties so will go with a slight chance of showers/storms for most of us on Monday and emphasize the better chances further west. That is certainly subject to change though. Also, some of these storms will also pose a risk of severe weather so any subtle shifts in where they initiate and their subsequent tracks will be closely monitored.

Another surface boundary is expected to be pushing through the state by early Tuesday with NE winds at the surface. But, aloft we still have the NW flow pattern and with a surface boundary stalling out to our S and W, there will be opportunities for showers/storms once again. Right now, the pattern suggests that activity should be even further west and south, so will try to keep rain chances out of the forecast for Tuesday. Also, Tuesday into Wednesday will be relative cool with highs in the 60s to near 70 both days.

After that, the pattern will be transitioning to an even more unsettled one with the storm system out west getting closer. With that in mind, have decided to use a broad brush 30% on the rain chances knowing that at least one of those days will end up with little or no rain and the others will be quite stormy. With the main storm system out in the Pacific at this time, and since it will not be adequately sampled by our observational network for at least another couple of days, there is just too much uncertainty to be any more specific than that.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot