Storm Chances Today

The weather pattern will remain active today, tonight, and Wednesday before the system moves eastward Thursday morning.  Showers and storms will be in the forecast for the next 36 hours, and some of the storms today could be strong to severe with hail the main threat.  

The convectively induced area of vorticity moved across East Texas yesterday and fired up thunderstorms that made it into southern Ok before falling apart last night around sunset.  A nice outflow boundary moved over the area last night around 8 to 830pm bringing gusty winds and some mild air to the region.   The western OK dry line storms remain to our west overnight but a few of these left over storms may be possible for the next hour or two just west of our areas.   Another outflow boundary moved over the northeastern OK area this morning around 2 to 3am helping to also stabilize our atmosphere.  Our better chances will crank up later today as another wave of instability crosses the region as it ejects around the base of the main upper level trough located to our west.   

This upper level trough will become cut off from the upper air flow and could remain near the area until Thursday morning.  This means showers and storms will be more numerous tonight through Wednesday morning.  Locations directly under the main upper level low currently located over the four corners area will undergo a late season winter storm.  Snowfall amounts in the mountains of Eastern New Mexico could exceed 17 inches while lower elevation areas will pick up 3 to 5 inches of snow.

Our area, or course, will be dealing with spring time weather today, tonight, and Wednesday.  The overall shear is not overly impressive but a few strong storms will be possible across the Eastern part of the state today and tonight.  

Temperatures should cool down slightly today with highs in the mid-70s.  Readings tomorrow could stay in the upper 60s depending upon how long the morning showers and clouds will stick around, but we'll keep a 73 on the map for daytime highs Wednesday.   

Thursday and Friday should be spectacular with cool mornings and mid afternoons Thursday in the upper 60s and Friday highs in the 70s.

Another storm system will be approaching for the weekend with the GFS more bullish with storms compared to the EURO.  We have increased our Saturday pops slightly compared to yesterday.  If you're making plans for Easter Sunrise services, I wouldn't change anything at this point, but prudence and good planning suggests you have some back up plans in the wings just in case these probabilities increase during subsequent forecast cycles.