Unsettled Weather Next Few Days.

Since folks have been asking what our record warm March weather means for the coming summer, the short answer is not much. Looking back at the previous record holders for March and comparing that with the following summers gives the following: March 1910 was the previous warmest March and the summer of 1910 had a near normal number of 100 degree days and an average temperature that was below normal. March 2007 was the second warmest March and the summer of 2007 had less than half the normal number of 100 degree days but the average temperature was slightly above normal. The next two warmest March's were 1907 & 1938 and both of those averaged below normal with respect to temperature. In other words, March apparently is not a very good predictor of what the following summer is going to be like.  Keep in mind, this is not a statistically rigorous analysis; just a brief summary.

For the short term, notice the QPF map on the right. We are going to be in a very unsettled period for the next few days with widespread showers/storms and the potential for some locally heavy rainfall. Also, some of the storms may become severe so keep a close eye on the sky.

After another very warm day today, there is a slight possibility of storms forming in W OK that may make it this far eastward later tonight. The better chances will be during the day Tuesday through the day Wednesday. That is when the main upper level circulation center will be wobbling across the state and it should be drifting on east of us on Thursday leading to improving conditions for Thursday and Friday.

After reaching well into the 80s again today, afternoon highs on Tuesday should be confined to the 70s and only near 70 on Wednesday due to the mostly cloudy skies and cooling showers/storms.

Brisk southerly winds today will be shifting to the NW by Wednesday as the low pressure system and cool front finally drifts on by. That will lead to cooler nights and mild days for Thursday and Friday.

Unfortunately, another system has been showing up consistently in the data for the Easter weekend so will have to maintain and even increase the chances of showers and storms for that time frame.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot